Archive for the 'China-Korea Relations' Category

The Trouble with North Korea

Tuesday, December 9th, 2008

The trouble with North Korea is that nobody wants it — except the current ruling elite of North Korea itself.
In a previous post, I rather immodestly predicted that, should the Kim regime collapse in North Korea, a military junta backed by China would emerge, resulting in a Burma-ization of North Korea. I further speculated that [...]

Post-Kim Dynasty Korean Peninsula and Beyond

Thursday, September 11th, 2008

Predicting the future is a chancy business at best and rarely rewards either the prognosticator or the consumers of the fortunetelling. Nonetheless, I offer the following thoughts as a conversation-starter.
With the recent speculation of Kim Jong-Il’s ill health, incapacitation and perhaps death, it might be useful to conceptualize the political shape of the Korean Peninsula [...]

What if Kim Jong-il Died… Today? (Part 2)

Friday, August 8th, 2008

This post is continued from last July, when rumors or Kim Jong-il having heart surgery had (again) brought up the question of who would lead North Korea should he die. That post basically covered dynastic succession and focused on his three legitimate sons, Kim Jong-nam (김정남), Kim Jong-chol (김정철), and Kim Jong-eun (김정운), none of [...]

Kim Jong-il Employing Lessons from the Sino-Soviet Dispute

Tuesday, March 4th, 2008

Though the mechanics are obviously different than the Sino-Soviet Dispute, the outcome is similar enough to be compared; North Korea is in the middle of the re-emerging Chinese great power and the world’s only superpower (for a detailed explanation this, see Suh Dae-sook’s book). Bush’s change from a hard-line to La-La Land policy on [...]

The Chinese are Coming… to Kaesong

Wednesday, August 29th, 2007

With China making claims on Korea’s history, giving Beijing a stake in North Korea’s well being on the DPRK’s southern border might not be the best of moves, but money beckons:
A Chinese manufacturer has become the first foreign company to sign a contract to open a factory in an inter-Korean industrial complex in North Korea, [...]

What if Kim Jong-il Died… Today? (Part 1)

Tuesday, July 10th, 2007

Update 2: via NightWatch:
Today, however, Japan Today and the South Korean daily Yonhap reported that Kim Jong-nam still lives in China, but made one of his periodic visits to Pyongyang in June.
Update: “Kim Jong-il’s Eldest Son ‘Back in Pyongyang”
The eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-nam (36) has returned to Pyongyang and [...]

Six-Party Talks Illicit Funds Snag is Good News

Wednesday, March 21st, 2007

Although Christopher Hill thought the matter was settled, “I think they [the North Koreans] recognize that this indeed means the matter is resolved,” he’d said, North Korea has refused to deal further until it actually receives its fund from the Macau bank:
Talks on ending North Korea’s nuclear program reached stalemate on Wednesday over the delayed [...]

Confusion over China’s Oil Exports to North Korea

Monday, November 27th, 2006

In late October there was speculation that China had suspended oil shipments to North Korea for the month of September due to displeasure over the July missiles tests and to send a warning concerning a nuclear test. In mid-November, Chinese officials told visiting American scholars that China had not cut-off oil (or food aid) to [...]

China Halted Oil, But Helped NK’s Nuclear Program, Maybe

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

An article in the New York Times indicates China may have punished North Korea by withholding oil, while another in the Washington Times suggests that China has helped North Korea with its nuclear programs. Both may be overblown.
According to figures released by China’s customs administration, no crude oil was shipped to North Korea for the [...]

Ordinary Chinese Angry at North Korea

Monday, October 16th, 2006

Average Chinese citizens are angry with North Korea for testing a nuclear weapon, but also harbor anti-American attitudes. Surprisingly, according to the article, a majority of Chinese believe China should “abandon” North Korea, although they aren’t likely to have much influence with policy makers. From USA Today:
By claiming to test a nuclear device, North Korea [...]