Several factors – all driven by Pyongyang – are at work and have created an increasingly tense military situation on the peninsula. Additional long-range missile tests are expected, and naval clashes along the Northern Limit Line (NLL) are becoming more likely.

Political

Some background: In January 2009, North Korea “voided” all political-military agreements with South Korea, although this did not seem to include the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, or economic agreements like the Kaesong Industrial Park or the Keumgangsan tours.

• On 27 May, Pyongyang announced it the Korean People’s Army (KPA), “will not be bound to the Armistice Agreement any longer,” due to South Korea’s participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), although legally speaking, that does not negate the boundaries.
• On 04 June, North Korea will try U.S. journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee on charges of spying. The two reporters were arrested on the Chinese side of the North Korea-Chinese border on 17 March after briefing crossing into North Korea to conduct interviews. Some analysts believe the two, acting as pawns in the current struggle between North Korea and the U.S., will receive long sentences in labor camps.

Missiles

Bottom line: North Korea appears to be preparing for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch, and I expect it to do so in the coming weeks.

• On 05 April, North Korea launched a Taepo Dong 2 (TD-2) (대포동 2호) missile, most likely in a space launch vehicle (SLV) configuration.
• The UN Security Council (UNSC) condemned the launch on 13 April, and North Korea withdrew form disarmament talks the following day, declaring it would resort its partially disabled nuclear facilities.
• North Korea also demanded an immediate apology from the UNSC on 29 April, threatening both, “nuclear tests and test-firings of intercontinental ballistic missiles,” if one was not received. Note both references are plural.
• On 01 June, U.S. SecDef Gates stated North Korea, “may be preparing to launch another long-range missile.” South Korean intelligence sources have leaked that such a missile has been transported to a North Korean launch facility, Dongchang-ri, on the west cost via train (the April launch was from Musudan-ri on the east coast, so this is an entirely different launch facility).

West Coast Military Developments

Bottom line: Ongoing KPA preparations indication North Korea is bracing for possible military confrontations on the west coast, perhaps along the Northern Limit Line (NLL). North Korea recently declared the 1953 armistice voice, but has never recognized the NLL as a legal sea border.

• Military units on North Korea’s west coast are increasing ammunition reserves to twice the normal levels and there has been an increase in vehicle movement in the region.
• North Korea has also declared a large are of the Yellow Sea (West Sea) off limits until July. While closure areas for military exercises and live fire events are not uncommon, the length of time for this closure is anomalous.
• The Korean People’s Army (KPA) has also significantly reduced communications, effectively increasing security.
• The number of illegal Chinese fishing vessels near the NLL has significantly declined recently.