NK Short-Range Missile Launches Relatively Unimportant
by Richardson ~ May 26th, 2009. Filed under: DPRK Military, Missiles.
The importance of the three short-range missiles launched by North Korea on Monday and the two follow-on launches Tuesday is being overstated in the press and by some politicians; this week is not about short-range missiles but about an apparently functional nuclear device design.
North Korea generally conducts several short-range ground-to-ship or ship-to-ship missile flight tests in either the Yellow Sea or the Sea of Japan (East Sea) every year. These tests can serve any combination of three purposes; (1) live fire training for the military, (2) research and development, and, at times, (3) to get attention with minor demonstrations of power during periods of regional tension.
Such launches should not get the attention they do unless they occur in the vicinity of opposing forces (e.g., along the NLL) or are part of actual attacks. Some of the missiles fired are said to be based on China’s Silkworm anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM), which it in turn based on Russian Styx. While these are dangerous under the right conditions, we’re talking about 1960s technology and a range of ~100 miles.
Unfortunately every minor launch carried out by North Korea is amplified beyond all reason. These launches aren’t genuine provocations unless one is looking to be provoked.
May 27th, 2009 at 10:31 am
I can only agree in full with Richardson, the main problem is not the 3 to ??? missile launches but the new nuke test. If it is plutonium based it will be a new evidence that the NK is preparing a warhead.
May 27th, 2009 at 11:15 am
It is said by the BBC that NK hails that is retreating from the old signed truce, as a retaliation to Seul adhering to non-proliferation, thus giving them the possibility to open fire on ROK or US armed forces. Is it gonna trigger some squirmishes on land, sea or both? It seems they are pretty angry on this issue that can limit their little dirty commerce with nuclear material.
May 27th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
What everyone seems to forget about is that their technology is decades behind today’s. Yes, NK can make nukes based on decades old technology and yes they can make some clunky old missiles. The thing is, can they they make functional militarized components (and finished items) that are miniaturized and ruggedized enough to launch and work correctly? I don’t think so. This is just more sabre rattling to make sure they get attention, nothing more. NK is nuts but not suicidal!
May 28th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
@j_wentz1 - I think that the issue isn’t so much who NK wants to shoot with the missiles it can produce as much as who wants to buy them. Even without a nuclear payload, my understanding is that these platforms could provide airburst opportunity in the region…and elsewhere, if smuggled out in components and reassmbled. I think this latter category of threat is what should inform the converage in the media. http://www.newsy.com/videos/northern_exposure_the_korean_threat
May 28th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
j_wentz1, I don’t feel like there’s any need to degrade them. They are not un-civilized just because they don’t have any ICBM with a re-entry vehicle and warhead. I don’t think they are any where near the capability of producing a re-entry vehicle with a warhead. The Ro-dongs is still an impressive feat. Mind you not even India and Pakistan got ICBM capability. And who would they sell too? Iran has already surpassed the North Korean capabilities. Not sure Syria would be much of a treat and African warlords prefer other weapons. Iran seams to have halted any efforts to get even longer range missiles too. I.e. not threating Europe. (Why they now would want to do that? It’s business partner?)
I don’t think they would sell nukes either, they would pretty much do anything for cash, but they don’t got much weapons plutonium and I’m not really sure if it’s even really weapons-grade, you can explode reactor-grade fine too, but you get a highly radioactive warhead and lower yields. Neither do they really got a proven warhead design or any real means of delivery. If you want a nuke your better of stealing a B61 from some of the nuclear sharing receiver states. They are easy enough.
Basically I think they would be happy getting fuel oil, food shipments and the possibility to get the Kumho nuclear powerplants later on. Like they where promised before the Bush era.
HMS Nerd, You don’t need to disassemble the missile you can just put them on a Cargo plane like they did for the Pakistanis in the 90’s. The taepodong/2 isn’t really a weapon either, it’s a three stage rocket that needs to be assembled by cranes on a launch site. The R-27U based Musudan missile is sellable though. And it’s the first stage on the Taepodong/2. But it doesn’t have the best fuel for use as a mobile IRBM. So it’s not really usable for anything. They aren’t worse proliferators then any western country, we sell plenty of weapons to troubling regions and oppressive countries. And US was pretty good getting in old soviet weapons in Afghanistan and Iraq from Eastern Europe’s smugglers.
May 28th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
By the way - Scuds are to big to be smuggled like say in tunnels to Gaza, and it would be pointless anyway as you could just fire them from Egypt where you need to be able to get them too anyway. It wouldn’t really be possible to smuggle them to Lebanon either. They don’t (Hizbollah) control the ports or airstrips. And would hardly go unnoticed if smuggled from Syria and that would be a Syrian problem no body elses. They need a proper launch platform. They are very large.
May 29th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
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May 31st, 2009 at 3:18 pm
The significance of the anti-ship missile test is that the North Koreans are probably sending a message to the South Koreans that they have very capable anti-ship missiles to fire at ROK naval assets if they plan on enforcing the PSI.
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May 31st, 2009 at 9:50 pm
can this be from their failing economy, stir the pot like with GWB, and get some money or oil in return, to feed the locals.
Or could it be to rachet our attention of the great leaders appearance, looked warmed over to me.
or is this the begining of the struggle to take over from the great leader, or force a line to stand up and take over?
June 1st, 2009 at 8:40 pm
The missile tests occurred before South Korea fully joined PSI (assuming they will even fulfill that obligation), and since launch preps take time, it seems North Korea planned the launches before South Korea’s decision.
My guess is that the ASCM launches were a warning to any allied recon vessels in the SoJ.
June 9th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
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