North Korean Taepo Dong 2 Launch Postscript
by Richardson ~ April 22nd, 2009. Filed under: Engagement, Missiles, WMD.North Korea launched a Taepo Dong 2 (TD-2) missile - probably a space launch vehicle (SLV) - on 05 April 2009. This was a launch of many firsts for Pyongyang, including releasing data about the launch beforehand and some actual video of the event afterwards:
Like the 1998 Taepo Dong 1 (TD-1) launch that failed, this TD-2 launch did not complete the stated goal; placing an experimental communications satellite into orbit. North Korea still insists this one placed a satellite - the Kwangmyongsong-2 (광명성 2호) - into space. However, as some have noted, the payload could have been a bag of sand for all we know.
The bottom line is that the test technically was a failure, but for many reasons it was still useful to North Korea. First and foremost, they gained test data for the very same platform that could be used as an ICBM (the only difference between an SLV and an ICBM is the payload; satellite or warhead). Pyongyang will use it for internal propaganda, since the audience won’t have access to the truth about the failure to place the satellite into orbit. Missiles, long off the bargaining table, are back and have distracted the nascent U.S. administration from the nuclear issue. Not that any talks, be the multi- or bi-lateral, will ever solve the nuclear issue. And once again North Korea has demonstrated the complete uselessness of the UN in such matters. ROK Drop lists a few more reasons.
I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that North Korea will follow-up with a nuclear test and try to establish de facto nuclear power status, with and ICBM delivery capability as the cherry on top. When? I’ll guess later in 2009, but it could depend how much money-for-nothing they can get first. At any rate, the goal likely is to come to the negotiating table at some point in the future as a nuclear power rather than the nuclear wannabe power. It’s still my opinion that North Korea under Kim Jong-il will never bargain it’s nuclear material away, and that engaging them with the hope of genuine progress in that area is foolish.
Also see this excellent animation of the TD-2 launch:
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:46 am
[...] North Korean Taepo Dong 2 Launch Postscript [...]
May 1st, 2009 at 1:44 am
>(the only difference between an SLV and an ICBM is the payload; satellite or warhead)
- The major difference difference between SLV and an ICBM is that the payload on the former is not aimed to hit any particular target on the ground, sea or air; while the latter (with or without the payload) should hit the target.
Was the 5 April’s launch a success or a failure is another question but the North Koreans did not plan to hit any particular target with their Unha-2, which makes it look like SLV.
May 1st, 2009 at 7:17 am
The obvious context (in the other half of the sentence quoted) was the capability of the vehicle/missile, which is exactly the same.
If the goal was to orbit a satellite, which I believe it was, then it was an absolute failure, outside internal propaganda and external brinkmanship.
May 31st, 2009 at 3:27 am
It is said that while the first stage fired correctly and boosted the rocket on the right course, the second stage also behaved as it should but then the third stage failed to separate from the exhausted second-stage thus bringing the end of the accurate launch and the third stage among with the debris from the second plunged into the sea shortening the trajectory.
Just one hypothesis: what if the third stage was not a self propelled one but the warhead itself or the lower part of the warhead? What if the missile was designed to function this way?
June 2nd, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Andrei;
A third stage would house the satellite or warhead, but would also have a propulsion system. The fact that nothing achieved orbit indicates a failure.
June 18th, 2009 at 11:24 am
[...] to try and fix the third stage problem they had with their last missile test back in April. Here is North Korean video of that [...]