If Reunified Korea is Nuclear, Japan Could Go Nuclear
by Richardson ~ March 18th, 2009. Filed under: Asia, Japan-Korea Relations, Korean Politics, Reunification, U.S. Military, U.S.-Korea Relations.In July 2006, I wrote about the potential for an East Asian arms race. One possibility mentioned at that time was of Japan also going nuclear if a reunified Korea chose that option. A recent Congressional Research Service report, “Japan’s Nuclear Future: Policy Debate, Prospects, and U.S. Interests,” (PDF) 19 February 2009, has noted the same thing (H/T CSIS):
The previous taboo within the Japanese political community of discussing a nuclear weapons capability appears to have been broken, as several officials and opinion leaders have urged an open debate on the topic. Despite these factors, a strong consensus—both in Japan and among Japan watchers—remains that Japan will not pursue the nuclear option in the short-to medium term. (pg 2)
Any eventual reunification of the Korean peninsula could further induce Japan to reconsider its nuclear stance. If the two Koreas unify while North Korea still holds nuclear weapons and the new state opts to keep a nuclear arsenal, Japan may face a different calculation. (pg 15)
South Korean press didn’t miss this, of course.
In 2006 there were rumors of the U.S. withdrawing all military forces from South Korea. I argued that the role of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) had not been to prevent a North Korean invasion for some time, but to act as a regional balancer. With a change of the U.S. Secretary of Defense, and the election of a relatively pro-U.S. South Korea president, the threat of USFK leaving Korea seems rather distant. Additionally, senior U.S. military leaders are shying away from stating the reality of the regional role USFK plays (PDF).
It is still my position that USFK plays the central role in preventing a regional arms race that could lead to both Korea and Japan going nuclear.
March 19th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Do you think China would stand for a unified Korea with nukes? I seriously doubt it. I doubt any other powers in the region would like it as well. But China is in a position to do something about it, where others are not. A unified Korea would probably preclude the USA being there with armed troops.
March 20th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
Addressing the last part of your comment first, I don’t think a unified Korea would preclude a U.S. presence at all. The country would be spending so much on reunification efforts that defense would likely gladly be left to USFK.
If the U.S. were not there, a unified Korea likely would go nuclear - it would be the cheapest option for them, and they have the know-how to do so easily.
Once they went that route, I don’t see China being able to do much about it. They have failed in regard to North Korea right along with everyone else.
March 22nd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
[...] Could Japan go nuclear? [...]
March 28th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
A reunified Korea? That is absurd. It will never happen. Only a World War 3 would free the North Korean people from its
evil government
April 1st, 2009 at 11:54 pm
Americans. Pfft.
You seem to place SO much importance on the nuclear capabilities of other rising countries, yet don’t seem to condemn the fact that you’re the most nuclear-capable country on the planet. You’re also the only country to have put that power to use. And you’re the ones picking fights all over the world, poking your noses into other countries affairs…which is what causes other upcoming countries to feel the need to have nuclear weapons also - in case you decide to get all up in their faces too.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:10 am
Just discovered your blog for the first time and it`s fantastic– expect a new weekly visitor.
Comment for Alex… as an American who thinks we use our vast nuclear arsenal relatively wisely, I still can`t disagree much with you. Back in the early nineties an Indian minister was asked about lessons from the First Gulf War. His response was succinct: `Don`t go to war with the United States unless you have nuclear weapons.`
I am pleased to hear that Obama is discussing further disarmament with the Russians, but nothing from that minister`s above remarks is likely to change anytime soon.
April 7th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
I am not any more worried about the prospect of a nuclear Korea than I already am by existing nuclear weapon.
My country is neutral and does not have nuclear weapons. But in Europe there are plenty of nuclear weapons all over the place: UK, France, Russia and on US bases all over the continent…. I have no illusions about being safe.
But who would a UNIFIED Korea want to threaten/protect from with nukes? They couldn’t take on either China, Russia, Japan or the United States. None of these countries would consider invading Korea.
I think the non-prolifieration agreement is a hippocritical joke. It is very inconsistently policed and enforced. And I can’t help remembering that there is actually only one nation that has used nukes during war time, and still argues that it was a good thing. No other nation however ‘rogue’ or ‘evil’ has tried it so far.
May 9th, 2009 at 8:03 am
[...] by ampontan on Saturday, May 9, 2009 RICHARDSON OF DPRK STUDIES does us all a favor in this post by bringing our attention to the Congressional Research Service report, Japan’s Nuclear Future: [...]