North Korea Plans April 2009 Missile Launch
by Richardson ~ March 13th, 2009. Filed under: DPRK Military, Missiles.In an attempt to quell speculation about a possible ICBM (a missile that typically delivers a nuclear warhead) test launch, North Korea recently signed related international treaties and announced it plans to launch a satellite in early April:
An international maritime agency official said Thursday that the [International Maritime Organization] has received a letter from North Korea saying it will launch a satellite between April 4-8. (emphasis added)
As I noted a few weeks ago, there are several advantages to launching a satellite rather than an ICBM with a payload. Briefly; 1) To focus the nascent Obama administration on the issue. Went off like clockwork. 2) Iran received little criticism after launching a satellite in early February. 3) An SLV is technically easier but tests the exact same technology needed for an ICBM, which could potentially be armed with a nuclear weapon.
The director of U.S. National Intelligence, Dennis Blair, on Tuesday stated that North Korea appears to be preparing to launch a SLV (also see OFK). What South Korea notes, and what Blair failed to emphasize, is that any launch would violate UN Security Council resolutions. Whatever the outcome - success or another miserable failure - North Korea will use the launch (portrayed as a success, or course) for internal propaganda
Personally, I would not mind seeing either the U.S. or Japan shooting the missile down. April should be interesting.
Update:
- The bearing of the missile shot shows that, if an ICBM, it could be aimed at Hawaii.
- It will be interesting to compare North Korea’s April satellite launch to South Korea’s planned satellite launch in July.
March 14th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
I really think the satellite launch is a a lot of BS, and there is no shortage of BS from the DPRK. With that said, I really, really doubt the United States will do anything but coddle kin, especially in this administration. Kimmie has been trying to get Obama’s attention for some time with his actions as of late, but right now, he’s been too busy pissing money we do not have on other stuff.
Perhaps it is going to be the duty of somebody else to shoot the missile down if in fact it is successful. Is this the only long range they have? Because it took a very long time to go from the first Taepo dong 2 to this reported one. Whatever the case may be, Kim needs leverage, and this may be the ticket.
…as usual.
March 16th, 2009 at 12:04 am
NK actually stands a chance of shooting itself in the foot with the Obama administration with this missile launch:
Obama hates missile defense. He is stuck in the 1980s on it. He has that “Star Wars BS”/anti-Reagan mentality about it. He has said frequently in the past that he’d cut wasteful government spending on research and development of expensive military hardware/technology.
NK shooting up a missile right now would make killing missile defense harder - even with a Dem controlled Congress.
And missile defense is the last thing the North should be trying to encourage, because there is no way at all that the North can produce enough missiles and warheads to defeat a minimally adequate missile defense shield…
….NK wants the missiles so it can deter the US and give it more freedom to try other brinkmanship measures.
If it just sits and waits, it could very well see missile defense scrapped.
But shooting a missile up could ensure that its efforts to build a stand-off threat is a complete waste of money…
March 18th, 2009 at 12:18 am
yeah, it’s the same old sh*t.
kji throwing a fricking tantrum.
everyone else to not do anything….especially the UN.
nk non-elites to keep on suffering.
what changes? nothing.
especially in this economy that russia and china actually cares about capitalism.
even after NK launches, nothing will happen.
china to keep on hoping no fall of NK and refugee crisis……and hot damn….SK probably doesn’t that to happen even more than china.
nothing fricking happens. does anyone wanna bet?
same sh*t different day….different crisis……no change until NK falls on its own.
March 18th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Jack;
I think the North Koreans are telling the truth about this one. I could of course be wrong, but to me a satellite launch makes a lot of sense and the North Koreans can still obtain valuable missile test data, assuming it doesn’t’ blow up on the first few seconds (2006) or fall short or orbit (1998).
usinkorea;
Iran’s recent satellite launch and North Korea’s upcoming launch – satellite or not – have already likely done much for missile defense proponents. Probably Obama will have to moderate many of his campaign positions as he is made aware of these realities through the briefings he receives as president.
March 21st, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Considering cellular phones and calling out of the country is illegal in North Korea (for the average citizen) a comunications satellite doesn’t make much sense unless they are planning to allow their people to start talking to the outside. I agree they are trying to gather as much information about long range missiles with this launch.
March 22nd, 2009 at 7:17 am
I think trying to shoot down the missile/satelitte is bad idea.
1. what if fails ? pretty emabarrasing all around.
2. If it succeeds it gives the NK even more reason to hate everyone else and will give them even more reason to try again.
3. They have actually announced their intentions to the appropriate body so it’s technically against any laws.
Yes we know it’s a sabre rattling gesture on their part, but let them rattle. If, worst case scenario, it really is nuclear bomb that does some damage to someone somewhere, then we really would have all the excuse we need to march in and wipe them out. But the chances of them having a suitable working bomb? pretty remote? I live in Japan. I’m willing to risk it.
Let them have their fireworks and boast to the poor starving citizens how they can manage to light a fire under a rocket, and yet they cannot feed the population.
March 22nd, 2009 at 8:38 am
oops. insert a NOT into point 3 above.
March 22nd, 2009 at 10:40 am
I really don’t care if someone shoots the missile down or not, but, North Korea can’t hate us any more than it already does.
A key part of the regime’s social engineering, to ensure the level of control it has on its people and to control their level of outrage at the level of deprivation the society lives in constantly, is to demonize the United States constantly. Hatred of the US is instilled cradle to grave.
North Korea is also hell-bent on remaining as isolated from the world community as it can possibly be - again - to ensure the regime is able to control the masses as tightly as it can.
Shooting down the missile isn’t going to do much inside North Korea one way or another.
The attempt to knock the missile down failing would look bad.
I doubt anybody believes the North is actually going to try to put a nuke on it. I’m sure it is a test.
A successful test will help NK sell its missiles to Iran and others.
If I had a vote, I’d want to see Japan shoot it down.
Japan is much, much more under the threat of Pyongyang than the US. Japan is also a key cash cow that NK wants to milk but it also tries to sideline Tokyo in any negotiations just as it does Seoul. What NK always tries to do is a repeat of the first nuke accord - where Carter representing the US cut a deal SK and Japan had to pay for.
And the last couple of years of Bush NK policy did isolate Japan which NK clearly saw.
Japan shooting the missile down - or even, really, trying to but failing - would show Pyongyang that Tokyo has the resolve to defend itself - to stand up for itself.
A successful test would also show Pyongyang that they are wasting a lot of their precious highly limited resources pursuing a dream that will never materialize: that trying to build an ICBM is useless, because that technology is too primitive compared to the defenses against it. Maybe it would even get them - and places like Iran - to rethink their whole missile goals…
A successful shoot down should also give some bit of reassurance to the people of Japan.
March 27th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
um, how ridiculous are you people. this is a threat to the security of Japan and South korea, meaning, thier lives…we are talking about a crazy man in power in the North who is willing to fire a missile OVER Japan as he has already done and REALLY close to a Japenese cruiser, which he has already done. you have to be insane not to recognize the blood thursty northern regime and their dangerous irresponsible behavior. They are still the communist toddlers they have always been, hey, we are communist that gives us every right to violate ALL the natural laws of man and survival, i think not, they launch they die.
April 6th, 2009 at 1:53 am
Much ado about nothing…why the USA and Korea and Japan haven’t taken proactive steps (read bomb the heck of of North Korea) and dismantle the countries leadership is beyond me. KJI is in reality a non-player, hell he’s a none person but the county deserves a wack or two like an ill mannered gnat. Invasion into NK is imminent by both South korea, japan with a little help from USA. Finally.
April 8th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
I agree that something has to be done with nk . of course the un has to be carefull not to start ww3. But don’t wait too long because the next “TEST LAUNCH” may not be a test launch.And who’s to say the recent launch wasn’t a bluff , and the next one will infact be a nuke . who’s to say they don’t have the capabilities now, and not only be a direct threat to Japan, or the us but infact the stabillity of the entire world . lets face it nk makes a move and we retaliate iran will follow . and don’t forget their commi buddies russia and china.
June 1st, 2009 at 10:40 pm
We wont do anything about it until North Koreas nuke tech reaches the hands of a terrorist in New York, Los Angeles or Hawaii. Or the NK leadership decideds to actually use a nuke against us. The fact of the matter is, we only attacked Iraq and Afghanistan, because our military knew we wouldnt have any resistance. NK will however be the exact opposite, they will kill lots of our soldiers and put up a actual fight, which is the exact reason NK has been allowed to get away with spreading nuke tech around the globe to the highest bidder. Wait till the bomb tech reaches a terrorist or individual with the motivation of demolishing a entire American city. We’l do something then, but to bad for the people who get vaporized due to our political leaderships lack of back bone in the face of an actual military threat. We scream about spreading democracy while funding the overthrow of a democratically elected leader in Pakistan! Believe me folks, America isnt the land of the free, we are owned by special interests from Israel to the military industrial complex!
VOTE RON PAUL FOR PRES! Google Ron Paul!! learn about him! the corporate owned media doesnt want you to know about him! because he will stop the sickness spreading through our countries political leaders ship!
June 2nd, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Nathan;
The communications satellite North Korea probably tried to orbit would have been of the most primitive type, just transmitting two songs – “Song of General Kim Il-sung” and “Song of General Kim Jong-il” – on 470 MHz.
Jon Allen;
Actually, it’s against UNSCR 1718.
Jonah;
A North Korean ICBM, if operating properly, would not be a threat to either South Korea or Japan. However, in the likely even it failed and fell erratically on one of those countries, it would indeed be a threat of sorts. The ICBM is meant to be a threat to the U.S., and something for sale.
Seasloth;
North Korea has hundred of artillery tubes aimed at Seoul. While bombing North Korea sounds like fun a first blush, it likely would cost at least hundreds of thousands of South Korean lives.
A CANADIAN;
Iran actually launched a satellite (successfully) before North Korea, and received virtually no international condemnation. While an ICBM is not a threat the Japan, North Korea has plenty of other missiles that are.
Sparky;
I don’t think North Korea will attempt to use nuclear weapons against the U.S. – that would be actual suicide for the regime, all of it. The real threat is proliferation. As far as invading Iraq, we did not know it would be easy; if you recall, before the invasion there were all sorts of wild estimates that we’d lose anywhere form thousands to tens of thousands to chemical weapons. Paid for by the Israeli Military Industrial Complex. Just kidding. Not really. Confused?