Long-term Goals in North Korean Brinksmanship
by Richardson ~ February 18th, 2009. Filed under: Axis of Evil, Diplomacy, Engagement, Hunger & Famine, Kim Jong-il, Korean Politics, Missiles, Nuclear Proliferation, Propaganda, Six-Party Talks.The Taepo Dong 2 (TD-2) (대포동 2호) missile launch(es) North Korea likely is preparing for, and recent voiding of all political-military deals with South Korea, are part of Pyongyang’s long-term strategy of regime survival. While these actions also have less important near-terms goals – expressing displeasure with ROK President Lee Myung-bak’s relatively hard-line approach to inter-Korea relations, and perhaps maneuvering U.S. into missile talks and more concessions in that area – North Korean strategists are, as usual, looking much further down the road than U.S. or South Korean policy-makers.
Shifting international – and especially U.S. – attention to missiles and South Korea’s to what might happen along the Northern Limit Line (NLL) or the DMZ, Pyongyang has effectively moved the nuclear issue to the backburner. The Six Party Talks have not been in the headlines much lately.
North Korea almost surely will classify its upcoming TD-2 launch as an attempt to orbit a satellite, or a Space Launch Vehicle (SLV), as it did in 1998 although after the fact. There are several advantages to this that make it much more likely than an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test:
- First and foremost, regardless of success or failure, it will help focus the new U.S. administration on missiles and move the nuclear issue to the background. North Korea waited out the Clinton and Bush administrations, and forcing the nascent Obama administration to deal with the missile issue, for months and perhaps for years, will only delay the nuclear issue further. Not that any U.S. administration has been effective in that area.
- Secondly, North Korea likely has noted the almost non-existent criticism of Iran for its 2 February satellite launch and will follow that example. A recent Nodong Shinmun (via the KCNA) article noted that: “Any country which stands for the peaceful use of space is entitled to advance into space any time and use it for peaceful purposes. The DPRK, a member of the international community, has an option to advance into space and a legitimate right to participate in the space scientific and technological race.”
- Finally, an SLV launch is less difficult but will test most of the same technology of an ICBM. An SLV only has to place an object into orbit, while an ICBM must land (target) more precisely. Therefore an SLV will, if successful, validate the design of the rocket, providing much needed R&D information to North Korean scientists. So far all Taepo Dong rockets have failed.
At this point, I assume that the Obama administration will not do better than the previous two presidents, and that North Korea likely will maintain its de facto status as a nuclear power. Kim Jong-il may be moving to install his third son as successor and may be positioning him to maintain that power after the current leader dies.
February 19th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
The man has made his point. I think this is correct almost 100%.
Not to mention the fact that a succesfull launch will give them the opportunity to sell this technology to third countries and this mean big bucks. So they have to launch it no matter the messages from Washington or Seoul. They succeeded in selling the nuclear tech to others, they will sell long range missiles even to the ghost of president Mao if this will bring cash.
February 20th, 2009 at 10:11 am
I worry that it may have a projected ballistic impact point on US soil, which will cause us to intercept, which could be used by the North as a pretext for war.
February 20th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Mark,
There is the chance that any missile - ICBM or SLV - could come down, intended or not, on the U.S. My guess is that missile defense folks are all over that possibility.
I don’t know at what point in the trajectory it is possible to determine where the impact point (if not space) will be. KCNA reporting indicates North Korea will frame the launch as an SLV.
If the U.S. shoots down the missile, North Korea’s response may depend on where it is when that occurs (e.g., over the Sea of Japan or further out). UNSCR 1718 is a factor in North Korea’s launching, but I’m not sure what laws, if any, apply to shooting down such a missile.
I seroulsy doubt North Korea would move to war if the U.S. shot down a long-range missile; there still is no calculus that would even remotely suggest a DPRK victory in such a confrontation.
February 21st, 2009 at 2:17 am
Fellows,
D-day: The NK will launch, nobody will harm this launch, the US will monitor its parameters and will issue a strong warning against such events. They will go to UN to ask for a UN decision on this matter condemning NK. NK will wipe its ass with the UN decision.
D-day + 1: some rocket-scietists delegates of foreign countries will buy a plane ticket for Pyongyang.
……
D-day + n: a cargo shipment will leave a NK harbour fully loaded with missile components.
end of the story
February 26th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Andrei,
North Korea and Iran already have a well-established relationship when it comes to missile and missile technology proliferation, and North Korea likely is always seeking new customers. Another failure, however, might not be good for business.
March 6th, 2009 at 3:37 am
Has anyone said whether they thought the Russian “scrap” subs have helped in making these missiles?
See what the Janes’ Defence experts say here:
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?articleId=9868
See DIA docs at the bottom of page 4 here:
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2000/101100a.html
Questions here:
http://www.mediachannel.org/views/dissector/affalert356.shtml
March 14th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Does anybody have any good information on how hard it would be simply to target the mainland US?
Hitting a specific city would take some work, but what about just the ability to hit “anywhere” in the US — oh — and detonating a warhead? (I seem to remember reading some time way back that making a workable warhead that will detonate is a big difficulty for them to master…???)
Anyway —- there could be a silver lining in this: the launch would open a window of opportunity for the US to repair the relationship with Japan that has been knocked around the last couple of years under the Chris Hill-era of North Korea policy….
….I wonder if Hillary and Obama will take the opportunity to mend fences….???
March 18th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
usinkorea;
If the TD-2 didn’t malfunction, and if reported ranges for that missile are correct, it could hit the U.S. mainland.
If the missile had a nuke warhead (that would work and could survive the ride), and if North Korea could manage an atmospheric detonation, the EMP would do tremendous damage, probably over several states.
My guess is if it looks anywhere close to coming to the U.S., it will be shot down, or at least attempts will be made.
My other guess, however, is that North Korea will indeed try to launch a satellite, and not test and ICBM with or without a nuke.
March 19th, 2009 at 9:23 am
Just think…if they would allow an international team in to inspect the payload, all this drama could be averted.
April 7th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
well I think the supposed warhead/payload was full of sand, ruble or anything but a sattelite. Why? because they do not want to risk losing a precious payload and the purpose of the launch was to verify the accuracy of the rocket parameters and evolution, so to check if the carrier is ABLE to function properly. Come on , is anyone buying that crap that a singing-satelite is orbiting Earth? Are those guys stupid enough to waste precious dollars for a singing Matrioska? I am not buying that.