North Korea Voids Political-Military Agreements with ROK
by Richardson ~ January 30th, 2009. Filed under: Diplomacy, Economics, Engagement, Korean Politics.North Korea’s state media, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), on 30 January 2009, released statement declaring the DPRK’s unilateral withdrawal from all political and military agreements with South Korea.
Specifically cited was a 1991 agreement that included a sea border in the Yellow Sea. This signals North Korea’s dissatisfaction with ROK President Lee Myung-bak’s policy of linking aid to progress in denuclearization, unlike the previous two ROK presidents that appeased Pyongyang. What to watch for? Another naval skirmish along the Northern Limit Line (NLL). From the KCNA:
The confrontation between the north and the south in the political and military fields has been put to such extremes that the inter-Korean relations have reached the brink of a war.
The group of traitors has already reduced all the agreements reached between the north and the south in the past to dead documents.
Under such situation it is self-evident that there is no need for the DPRK to remain bound to those north-south agreements.
[…]
First, all the agreed points concerning the issue of putting an end to the political and military confrontation between the north and the south will be nullified.Second, the [1991] Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-aggression, Cooperation and Exchange between the North and the South and the points on the military boundary line in the West Sea stipulated in its appendix will be nullified.
Of note, this statement did NOT mention economic agreements, meaning that the Kaesong Industrial Complex and Kumgansan tourist venture likely are not on the chopping block, at least from the North’s perspective – yet.
The 1953 armistice (PDF) is not included in this statement as it is not a North-South agreement, but on between the United Nations Command, the Korean People’s Army, and the Chinese People’s volunteers.
There are three major political-military agreements that are potentially effected by this announcement, and one that specifically is:
• 1972 - North-South Joint Communiqué (DOC)
• 1991 - North-South Agreement on Reconciliation (DOC)
• 1992 - Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (DOC)
• 2000 - North-South Joint Declaration (PDF)
Article 11 of the 1991 agreement cited by North Korea states:
The South-North demarcation line and areas for non-aggression shall be identical with the Military Demarcation Line specified in the Military Armistice Agreement of July 27, 1953 and the areas that have been under the jurisdiction of each side until the present time.
The west coast border between the two Koreas has been extremely contentious and volatile, with naval skirmishes in 1999 and 2002. By disavowing the previously agreed upon border, North Korea opens up the possibility of more naval confrontations on the West Coast.
Pyongyang’s scrapping of bilateral agreements with South Korea seems to be aimed at Seoul rather than Washington, so I do not deem that this is a direct signal to the new U.S. administration. South Korea has, so far, responded very calmly, and called for more talks.
Also see:
• OneFreeKore: Hostile Policy Update: North Korea Kills Off Sunshine
• Living Life Frame By Frame: G*ddamnit, North Korea, quit throwing temper tantrums!
January 31st, 2009 at 1:27 pm
I have seen several articles and comments suggesting this is a preamble to war and Kim is serious. While he should be watched very carefully and not be trusted by any means whatsoever, this is the same song and dance the regime has played for decades.
With that said, this is a perfect example on why throwing money over the DMZ does not work. Kim will always renege on his promises no matter how nice the international community is. Also, they can beg all day long for Kim to play nice, but that is not how Kim operates. He wants his regime to survive; which is one of the main reasons why I cannot see a resuming of the Korean War. If that should happen, which would be very ugly for the ROK and others, the DPRK would be toast.
I am sure Kim knows this, just like his father knew it.
As for the special economic zones, I am very convinced Kim is at a crossroads. They desperately need the hard currency, but at the same time, want absolute control. These zones are encroaching on their space, and the more outsiders come in, the less control they have. So they want it both ways, and I cannot see how it can be sustained forever.
The many things piled on Kim’s plate such as marketization, technology, corruption, food shortages and more, it appears the population and the world is changing while the regime remains in a time warp. This was part of the seeds sown for the ending of the old communist bloc, and may be the seeds sown for the end of the Kim regime.
With that, Kim would be pretty dumb to end the economic zones right away, but I am sure he is trying his best to have his cake and eat it too.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:08 pm
[...] DPRK Studies and One Free [...]
February 1st, 2009 at 5:19 am
I disagree that this is the same old song and dance.
1. NYTs writer Cho Sang Hun reports that this is the first time all relations have been completely severed.
2. There are 250,000+ NK defectors in China, and some are making it SK in increasing numbers.
3. The NK Christians are spearheading a robust leaflet campaign to denounce the godhood of the Kims and preach Jesus Christ as Savior. They know all the right buttons to push.
4. Christainity poses a terrifying threat to the Juche regime built on the cult of personality of the Kim dynasty.
5. The numbers and activities of Christian missionaries with regard to NK is exploding. In 1979 there were 21 missionary organizations in SK; as of 2006 there were 174.
6. There may be as many as 500,000 Christians in the KN underground church.
7. KJI is likely incapacitated. At the very least, he knows his health is shaky and that a successor is necessary. None have been openly anointed to the PDRK.
8. Lee Myung Bak may not flinch.
9. Outside Pyongyang NKs are starving (again).
10. US foreign policy is a puzzled mystery in the Obama administration. The US is being led by a neophyte with no executive experience of any kind.
Finally, cults often blow themselves up when they realize the cultus is collapsing. SK media has made major inroads to the Hermit Kingdom. People know Juche is BS. When cults feel threatened, they may engage in violent, suicidal behavior: Branch Davidians, Jim Jones and the Peoples’ colony, the Raelians, the Japanese cult that gassed the Tokyo subways, etc… NK is one massive mind control cult. It ought to be analyzed as such and not a “Stalinist” regime.
February 1st, 2009 at 5:50 am
I mean the same song and dance in regards to sabre rattling. Read my post closer. Thanks.
February 1st, 2009 at 8:03 am
Jack, I think we agree on most of the details, but I think this is dangerous business whether the choreography looks familiar or not. Cults can get very unpredictable when it looks like they are being exposed.
February 1st, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Oh, OK, I see what you mean now. Re-reading my post, it came off as harsh. I could not edit, and I apologize for that.
February 1st, 2009 at 4:41 pm
[...] another sign that the ROK military better watch the Northern Limit [...]
February 12th, 2009 at 4:20 am
I think KCJ is right, this is not a stalinist regime, this is a predatory regime of different kind and style and they have to bolsten somewhat their ideology, this regime is sort of a ceausescu regime in romania so they will avoid, if they are smart enough, to much mix with western values in order not to be affected and infected by the western virus. They have seen what happened in russia and the satelite countries, they see the china evolution, i don’t think they are prepared to lose control or share the power, to share the minds of their sclaves because there’s an entire people there in slavery.
Kim Jong Il will seek maybe a limited conflict in order to achieve what his father did some decades ago, a war to glorify his kingdomship and rule and that will strenghten his iron grip on the country. Off course if he could prove deadly serios about the nuke-warhead pointed to the US soil.
And this is not gonna happen today or tomorrow but in a couple of years. Pointing a taepong-2 witha nuke-warhead to Alaska and starting a blitzkireg there you think the US will dare to use all its weaponry? I have great doubts aboiut that.