First Succession Rumor of 2009: The Dear Leader Selects Son Number Three, Kim Jong-un
by Richardson ~ January 15th, 2009. Filed under: Kim Jong-il, Korean Politics, Reunification.In November I speculated that Kim Jong-il’s apparent stroke in August might prompt him to select a successor before he dies or becomes incapacitated. Reporting from Yonhap claims that Kim Jong-il’s third son, Kim Jong-un (김정운) (also Romanized as Jong-eun and Jong-woon, has been chosen as his successor:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has recently designated his third son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor and delivered a directive on the nomination to the Workers’ Party leadership, sources well-informed on North Korea said Thursday.
[…]
“(Kim) delivered a directive around Jan. 8 that he has named Jong-un as his successor to the leadership of the Workers’ Party,” one of the sources told Yonhap News Agency on condition of anonymity.Jong-un, now 25, was born to Kim’s third wife, Ko Yong-hi, who died of breast cancer at the age of 51 in 2004. The youngest of Kim’s three sons, Jong-un was educated at the International School of Berne and is known to be a fan of NBA basketball. After his return to Pyongyang in his late teens, the North has kept him under a shroud of secrecy and very little is known about his character.
[…]
“The sudden nomination caught even senior members of the leadership by surprise,” another source said. “The power elite who have learned of Jong-un’s designation are rushing to line up behind the junior Kim and this climate will rapidly spread across North Korean society,” the source said.
[…]
The sources said Kim’s deteriorating health condition changed his mind.
Although entirely plausible, at this point the report is a single-source, unsubstantiated rumor. If true, expect to see reporting from KCNA, perhaps leading up to or directly after the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) elections in March.
Of Kim’s three sons, the least is known about Kim Jong-un, including what he looks like.
For a few more thoughts on how succession scenarios might play out, also see, “What if Kim Jong-il Died… Today? (Part 1),” and “What if Kim Jong-il Died… Today? (Part 2).”
January 15th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
[...] Edit: See DPRK Studies [...]
January 16th, 2009 at 9:03 am
Let’s not forget the last succession rumor of 2008—that Kim has yet another son, whose name remains unknown outside the DPRK, who is in/influential in the KPA..
January 16th, 2009 at 10:35 am
This is my bet;
http://www.dprkstudies.org/2005/12/01/missing-sk-stem-cell-researcher-the-next-nk-leader/
January 16th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Daily NK has a contradictory story, suggesting that Jong Nam has been selected.
http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=4459
January 16th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
There must be a lot of wester witnesses about that guy from his former western schoolmates in Berne. Which school was he in?
January 16th, 2009 at 8:15 pm
I tend to believe that Jong-un would be chosen over Jong-nam. These rumors made it out, it’s likely that following rumors will help clarify if there anything to clarify.
January 17th, 2009 at 12:50 am
US intelligence sources favor Jang Song-taek as the puppet-master controlling Kim Jong-nam. The other son is not mentioned.
http://english.chosun.com/cgi-bin/printNews?id=200901150001
January 17th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
I would guess that the confidence level for that alleged assessment is moderate or low (unless there is some hard intel on the subject), and may be based on the situation before the stroke Kim likely suffered in August 2008. I would further venture that the selection of Kim Jong-un, if the so far single source reporting is accurate, caught the intel community by surprise. As noted above, currently it’s just another rumor.
Still, it should not be a surprise if Jong-un were selected. For years the two younger brothers of Kim Jong-nam, Jong-chol and Jong-un, were thought to be too young to be named leaded so practically exclude from consideration. But that’s been the line of thought for so long that the two younger brothers are as old as Jong-nam was when he was thought to be old enough to be selected. Jong-nam may have blown his chances several years ago, while Jong-chol is rumored to be effeminate. On the other hand, Jong-un is rumored to be “just like” his father. Basically a house or cards, but logically there should be no surprise about Jong-un being selected if the rumors are only even half true.
Chang Song-take, in my opinion, would no doubt be a mentor to whichever of his nephews is selected, if any of them are selected. Due to the (intentionally) fractional nature of the North Korean elite, I do think they would tend towards a central figure of authority rather than collective leadership, though the latter may be a stop-gap measure while the former is selected either by the group or self-selection. But I think they would back anyone who could ensure they maintain their place of privilege in North Korean society.
January 18th, 2009 at 7:06 am
[...] Along with DPRK Forum’s «The Path to Succession: Kim Jong Un?» and DPRK Studies’ «First Succession Rumor of 2009: The Dear Leader Selects Son Number Three, Kim Jong-un», here’s an intelligent conversation about the future of the North Korean state. How long can [...]
January 26th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Kim Jong Nam tells the press he has no interest in the job:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7849205.stm