Kim Jong-il’s Health and Timing Succession
by Richardson ~ November 7th, 2008. Filed under: Kim Jong-il, Korean Politics, North Korea.If reporting over the past two months has been accurate, it seems that Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke (or perhaps a heart attack), in mid-August, was in the hospital for a time, but is now recovering. A French neurosurgeon, Francois-Xavier Roux, is thought to have treated Kim, which would point to a stroke, though Dr. Roux denies the reports. In May 2007 the German Heart Institute Berlin sent a team of doctors to Pyongyang, but also denied seeing Kim.
To stem rumors of Kim’s ill health, Pyongyang has engaged in a campaign to convince the world – and likely it’s own people – that he is health and inspecting Korean People’s Army (KPA) units as usual. However, research by BBC and the Times found irregularities in some of the photos, suggesting they could be fakes. The latest reports from South Korea claim that Kim’s brother-in-law, 62 year old Chang Song-taek, is running the country while Kim recovers.
In July 2007 and August 2008 I speculated on what would happen if Kim Jong-il died, coving dynastic succession by one of his sons, group leadership by elites, a strongman emerging, and foreign intervention. We still don’t know if North Korea has a succession plan, much less what it is. If South Korean reporting is correct or even on the right track, Chang Song-taek is a contender. The key for either collective leadership or a single leader is that the North Korean elite feel their positions are secure so they will support the new regime.
Could Succession Occur in late 2012-early 2013?
The Dear Leaders recent health trauma may have lit a fire under his arse to complete succession arrangements. While this is pure speculation on my part, if Kim were looking for a good time to hand over the reigns of power, he could do worse than December 2012 or January 2013 for a few reasons.
First, 2012 happens to be one of those years when U.S. and South Korean presidential election cycles overlap, being four and five year terms respectively. Administration changes are always at least slightly chaotic, and the new policy makers in Washington and Seoul likely would not be prepared. Second, Operational Control (OPCON) of wartime forces from the U.S. to the South Korean military is roughly scheduled for that timeframe and adds an addition element of chaos within both governments. Finally, if half the reporting on Kim’s various ailments is true, he’s living on borrowed time and four years could be pushing it. This would of course depend on who gets elected in 2012, what the progress of OPCON transfer is, and even if Kim is still alive, but it’s a possibility I thought I should bring up for discussion.
My own amateur analysis notices this about the photos claiming to be recent ones of Kim; his left arm is immobile in both photos, which could suggest residual damage from a stroke.
November 8th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
In regards to succession of Kim Jong Il, what do you think the chances of Jong-chol, his eldest son, taking control of the dynastic regime? Jong-chol has been seen accompanying Kim Jong Il on different diplomatic missions. Do you think he is in line for taking over North Korea? If so, do you think that his studies in Switzerland will have any influence on his rule over the DPRK?
November 8th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Kim Jong-nam is the eldest, while Jong-chol is the middle son.
Ten years ago the predominant theory was that Jong-chol and Jong-eun (youngest) were too young, making Jong-nam the likely choice of a dynastic succession. However, the two younger sons are now the age that Jong-nam was when it was thought he could be named successor, so they are both in the mix.
The rumor is that Jong-cho very effeminate and so out of favor with his father, while Jong-eun is thought to be “just like” his father and so more favored. There seems to be little chance for Jong-nam to rule North Korea, but there have been rumors about both Jong-chol and Jong-eun being named to positions that might indicate leadership preparation. See this post for a bit more.
If Kim Jong-chol were to become the next North Korean leader, I can’t see how his studies abroad wouldn’t have some effect on his world view.
November 9th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
[...] Could Kim Jong-il’s successor take control in 2012? [...]
November 10th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Kim Jong-il was a public figure in North Korea before the death of his father, right? So he took over as the natural successor chosen by the “Great Leader”.
What I wonder: is any of the discussed successor well known in the North Korean public? I mean, it would be difficult to build up a new leader if a completely unknown person has to take over.
November 10th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Kim Jong-il’s sons are generally known to the population, as are bureaucrats such as Chang Song-taek. However, how well one is known to the public is by far less important than who has connections within the ruling elite, for that is the group that would/will ultimately legitimize a new ruler should Kim Jong-il fail to do so.
Anyone out of the small pool of potential leaders who can convince the elites that they will retain their privileged status has at least a chance at gaining power.
I think the North Korean public would accept whoever is presented by the elite class, as fear of the unknown (more/greater instability) - and concentration camps - act as a brake on dissent. Probably there would be a propaganda campaign to introduce and legitimize whoever the next leader is.
If conditions got markedly worse under a new leader, we could see open social unrest. But the regime leadership has decades of experience at stamping that out, and the population decades of experience doing exactly what they are told, at least publicly.
November 10th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Kim Jong Il also has a daughter called Song-Sol. She is his second oldest child if I remember right.
Song-Sol has been working in the administration for a long time and is the most stable and politically experienced of his children + she is intelligent and well-educated (an economist!).
But on the other hand: When was a modern dictatorship was run by a woman? And whoever heard of a female communist leader?
Her husband (assuming she has one, I’m not sure…) might also be a contender, perhaps?
Anybody with more information about this, please post!
November 10th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
You are correct that Kim So’l-song (a.k.a. Kim Sul-song, in Korean; 김설송, and Hanja; 金雪松) is Kim Jong-il’s first daughter and second child (see family tree here).
However, I’ve never heard her name mentioned as a possible successor. Nor have I heard of hear building the requisite networks of support within the regime elite.
November 17th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
As you know, it took 20 years to legitimize the Kim Jong Il cult, and I have absolutely no idea how a sudden pass to power will be legitimized. Like the frog in boiling water, it has to be gradual.
With the serious economic problems, I cannot help but see reforms taking place to keep some semblance of the regime in place. The question is, how much reform without having the whole contraption falling apart?
Perhaps the collective leadership may be the answer. I simply have no idea. There is absolutely no evidence of succession, and at this point in time, it seems a little too late.
Perhaps a surprise is in store for us all, and maybe everybody is wrong. It has happened before.
March 29th, 2009 at 8:46 am
[...] would happen in North Korea in the event that Kim Jong-il passes away? He has not explicitly named a successor in the way that his father did before he died, so there is the potential for dispute. There are [...]