What if Kim Jong-il Died… Today? (Part 2)
by Richardson ~ August 8th, 2008. Filed under: China-Korea Relations, DPRK Military, Defectors & Refugees, Diplomacy, Economics, Kim Jong-il, Korean Politics, North Korea, Nuclear Proliferation, Reunification, U.S. Military.This post is continued from last July, when rumors or Kim Jong-il having heart surgery had (again) brought up the question of who would lead North Korea should he die. That post basically covered dynastic succession and focused on his three legitimate sons, Kim Jong-nam (김정남), Kim Jong-chol (김정철), and Kim Jong-eun (김정운), none of which had a clear advantage. A year later there is no new information to help discern that.
There are basically three other general possibilities should Kim Jong-il die and dynastic succession not occur; 1) group or collective leadership; 2) a senior government official could take charge, or; 3) an outside power could move in to restore order and take control.
Because there is a complete absence of an opposition party or group in-or-outside North Korea, that option is extremely unlikely and so is not considered here.
Group or Collective Leadership
Group or collective leadership by a political or military institution, or some combination thereof is perhaps the most likely scenario. The Korea Workers Party (KWP), National Defense Commission (NDC), or some sort of joint committee formed from both of those organizations and perhaps others, could fill the leadership void after Kim’s death.
I consider this most likely since these leaders a) have a vested interest in maintain the status quo and b) currently understand and run the machinery of the DPRK government, such as it is. It’s also possible such a group would use of Kim Jong-il’s sons as a figure head for legitimacy.
A New Leader
A senior official from a political or military institution could assume control after Kim’s death, perhaps taking the title of Kim’s current position as Chairman of the NDC. Examples include Kim Yong-nam (김영남), the de facto head of state since 1998 (per the DPRK constitution) or Chang Sŏng’taek (장성택), brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and former KWP official. A general officer could also attempt to assume control.
This is slightly less likely that collective leadership as Kim Jong-il, as far as we know, currently does not allow any one person to accumulate much influence.
Foreign Intervention
Finally, there is the possibility that North Korea elites will be unable to form a cohesive government and that no one person emerges as a leader after Kim Jong-il’s death. The likely result would be chaos and intervention from either the UN command (i.e., the U.S. and South Korea), or China, depending on the specific circumstances at the time and events beforehand.
If it became apparent North Korea was drifting into chaos, it could trigger the U.S. to execute CONPLAN 5029 to secure weapons of mass destruction, perhaps including nuclear weapons, and attempt to restore a semblance of order. Depending on how such a move is carried out, the state of North Korea’s military at that time, and myriad other factors, such an action could go smoothly or trigger fighting with elements of North Korea’s million-plus-man army.
North Korea’s military leadership could also initiate hostilities, which might leader the U.S. and South Korea to execute OPLAN 5027 - basically a second Korean War.
The Korean People’s Army (KPA) would not survive a confrontation with U.S. and ROK forces, but could inflict severe casualties or those forces as well as civilian populations. The ultimate outcome would be reunification under South Korea’s system, which has it’s own set of pit-falls.
If the U.S. is still occupied in Iraq and Afghanistan, and depending in how events unfold, China’s military could be in a better position to occupy North Korea first, restoring order and keeping a buffer zone between its territory and U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). This could lead to conflict between China and South Korea, and could draw in the U.S.
Conclusion
The bottom line is that no one knows who the next North Korean leader will be, perhaps or even likely including North Korean leadership. I lead towards group or collective leadership as I see the elite doing whatever they can to retain power.
Such a group may fail, bringing about collapse, war, or both. Or they could take the opportunity to retain control while, finally, adopting drastic reforms without the need to maintain the ridiculous Kim family cult.
We probably don’t have that many years to wait until Kim Jong-il dies. . .
August 9th, 2008 at 1:48 am
I tend to think that the regime leadership will decide to keep the cult of Kim alive by appointing one of his sons as the new leader but with little actual power if Kim Jong-il did die today since one of his sons would not have the time necessary to consolidate power.
August 9th, 2008 at 4:31 am
Alright… where shall I begin with this? I only have theories, and like many other watchers, theories abound. Does not mean my theory is any better, and it also means it could wind up in the pile of many other failed theories when the first succession was rumored and when Kim Il Sung died and Kim Jong Il “managed” one of the biggest famines in history (No, not as bad as the great leap forward and some others mind you). North Korea’s famine to me is much like a lurking virus. It goes in remission a while only to rear its ugly head later. In the case of the current oncoming famine, while different, the outcome may very well be the same. People simply do not have access to food.
In old communist regimes, standing in line a way a way of life. In North Korea, there is no line to stand in. That’s why there is a bottom-up marketization of the economy and is why the regime may lose control even with a million person army. Why? Even the military and elites are feeling the pinch. Why do they need Kim Jong Il and ideology? In my opinion, ideology does not mean much of anything, only something to go through the motions to and then go about trade while bribing officials. Also, the corruption can render a regime powerless.
The antiquated system of Juche is crumbling, and has been crumbling for over a decade. As the years go by, the situation only gets worse and all that is holding the regime together are bits of glue and a failed ideology. Next, the influx of information and word of mouth is spreading. With increased defections, these things can also render Juche what it really is, a mirage of promises not kept.
If one looks back in history and looks at the previous failures of regimes, the outcomes appeared to be based on one thing, economics. Once the economy started to unravel, then everything else unraveled. Take for instance the Soviet Union, China’s reforms, Cuba’s road to reforms (I believe Cuba is read to collapse anytime; the cracks are clearly visible there),Romania and the list goes on and on. Sure, I could be wrong about it, but that’s what I notice in my studies.
Communism is basically dead. China for instance has a repressive regime, no doubt whatsoever, but China recognized the power of the markets and special economic zones. In other words, Mao’s old revolutionary ideas were rotten and did not have all the outcomes his communism promised. In North Korea while different, came in the game much too late in my estimation. While the world and even North Koreans move ahead to something else, the regime remains in a time warp. There is no way there can be systematic reforms without the regime unraveling. Sure, Kim tried his hand at reforms, but the outcomes were once something appeared stable, go back to the old system and try to stop the train called markets with a toothpick.
With the current crisis in North Korea today, it seems to me no amount of reforms will save the the regime other than systematic reforms be it collective leadership, a coup or the regime simply evaporates and somebody else steps and takes over. I am simply reiterating what you are saying, but there may be something else…
I really do not think there will be another succession. Kim is not a stupid man, and I can guess he can see the writing on the wall. if there should be an unprecedented third succession, that successor will have a huge pile of problems on his plate. If somebody else takes over, there will be a huge pile of problems on the plate. Whatever the case, and no matter how one slices it, there will be nothing but problems.
Finally, there is simply not enough to legitimize a third succession even if it starts now. In the previous succession it took nearly 20 years to build Kim’s cult of personality, and there is simply no time to groom another leader. There is no evidence of another successor. No portraits, no monuments, nothing in the official propaganda. If a leader should emerge now, I think it will be laughed off. Time is not on Kim Jong Il’s side.
Will the regime go away tomorrow, next week, next year or even the next five years? Maybe. It survived famines, the fall of the Soviets, the death of Kim Il Sung and extreme isolation from itself and the international community for its stubborn stance. As Marcus Noland pointed out, regime failure or economic failure does not necessarily mean the end of a state. Perhaps a shell of a former North Korea may remain while others sweep the mess. How and what circumstances that will happen is very unclear.
August 9th, 2008 at 7:32 am
It is possible that the collective leadership could use one of Kim’s sons as a figurehead, but I think that wouldn’t work out in the long run.
The vibe I’m getting from defector reporting (Daily NK, Chosun Journal, etc.) is that the North Korean people started becoming disenchanted with the regime years ago, as truth from the outside began to trickle in through the cracks created during the mid-1900s famine and their distribution system collapsed.
North Korean currently cannot undertake the reforms it needs to that would help it survive due to the cult. Probably many of the elites realize this, but since there is no viable path to opposition (at least one that doesn’t’ lead to the gulag or a bullet), they know supporting the regime is their only option to retain power.
When Kim Jong-il dies, however, they have the chance to make those reforms and eject the cult. Many if not most people in North Korea have had to acquire their own provisions for years now and know the value of markets and trade, despite the ideology they are forced to recite. Corruption aside, the North Koreans might make pretty good capitalists.
August 9th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
[…] What if Kim Jong-il died today? What would happen? Find out here. […]
August 9th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
De-Kimmification should be interesting. There is not much else to say about that until it does happen.
August 10th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
The Whole city of Pyongyang will commit a “Masada” and commit suicide on a grand scale as a final show of their devotion to their dead god joining him on the Hale bop comet. Meanwhile ordinary North Koreans not fit to live in Pyongyang will ask for American and South Korean help build back up the country…
August 11th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
If North Koren couldn’t establish a stable government, North Korea would be annex by China. At first, as a ‘helping and healing’ exercise, but eventually as a province.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
Great Leader –> Dear Leader –> Better than a sharp stick in the eye Leader
October 2nd, 2008 at 6:18 am
lol… gotta love “Sexy Lap Dance” in this thread about Kim Jong Il. Perhaps he got a lap dance and had a stroke from some Joy Brigade behind shaking in the Dear Leader’s face.
Good times.
October 4th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
“Sexy Lap Dance” had to go! I guess I need more spam protection.
October 4th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Ahh, no worries. Akismet is not perfect, but it is very, very good.