Cha: If Kim Jong-il Dies, We Have No Plan
by Richardson ~ June 10th, 2008. Filed under: DPRK Military, Kim Jong-il, Korean Politics, North Korea, Nuclear Proliferation, ROK Miltary, U.S. Military, WMD.Victor Cha, in the Chosun Ilbo, discusses the problem - the current lack of a joint plan should Kim Jong-il die and North Korea spirals into chaos:
In what would be the single most important contingency that could impact the South Korean economy and security for decades, there is no agreed upon plan for how to deal with a collapsing North Korea. Here is just a sample of the unanswered questions: Do parties in the region have an agreed upon definition of what constitutes state failure in the North? Who determines when to intervene? . . . Who is responsible for securing nuclear and missile sites? Who is responsible for neutralizing artillery?
Given the stakes involved, you would think that the U.S., South Korea and other regional partners had some type of agreed upon plan. Nope. . . . The Roh Moo-hyun government rejected planning discussions because it believed that such discussions would offend Pyongyang and give the impression that the U.S. and Seoul were actively conspiring to collapse the regime. The Roh government instead tried to work on its own plan, without sharing any common concept of operations with the U.S.
Cha also offers the rough blueprint to the start of a solution to this issue.
Given the amount of time and effort the U.S. military puts into planning for this event, I doubt we’d sit on our thumbs while North Korea imploded. But there currently is a lot of potential for problems with implementing what we’ve planned, and it likely would be on the messy side. Personally I think the best option would be to let the ROK Army execute most parts of any plan to occupy the north, with limited support or troop strikes from U.S. forces. I have a sneaky suspicion the KPA won’t just roll over, and see no need to embroil the U.S. in mess that could last months and years. Hopefully we won’t find out soon.
June 11th, 2008 at 1:09 am
This is disinformation, I think. I have not the slightest doubt that several plans exist in the South Korean MOD’s archives.
This sort of talk is intended to be read by Pyongyang, and hopefully make authorities there discount the South as a threat.
June 11th, 2008 at 4:19 am
Actually it is not disinformation. Plans exist on both sides for a 5029 scenario – but they have not been jointly planned and coordinated as plans for 5026/5027 have been. That’s the difference, and it is significant.
Also, the 5029 CONPLAN is not threat to the current North Korean regime as in most cases it involves KJI dead and chaos or one sort or another in the north. If this were about 5027, then perhaps.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Great post, Richardson. I have learned quite a bit here.
Do you have any informaion on 5026/5027?
June 12th, 2008 at 10:14 am
should i travel to north korea before kim jong-il kicks the bucket??
just got the urge to go there after watching this vid.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YVIBawHaQY
June 13th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
What I can tell you about the OPLANs/CONPLANs is also available at places like GlobalSecurity.org, and perhaps FAS.
OPLANs (operations plans) are more formal and carefully planned than CONPLANs (concept plans), which are the basis of OPLANs. We have OPLANs for 5026 and 5027, but a CONPLAN for 5029 due to Ro Moo-hyun stopping joint planning. I don’t know what happened to 5028!
OPLAN 5026:
Or operation Orchard in Syria.
OPLAN 5027 is more comprehensive and basically deals with clearly defeating North Korean forces.
Both OPLANs are in response to North Korean provocations or an initiation of a second Korean War.
As indicated in the article, CONPLAN 5029 deals with securing North Korean WMD should the regime loose control and begin to implode.
A major concern for all three plans is the transfer of OPCON (operational control) to the ROKs in 2012 (or there abouts), which will in effect result in two centers of allied control, as USFK likely won’t be guided by the ROKs.
June 13th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Frank, nice clip!
June 14th, 2008 at 5:59 am
I wholeheartedly concur with Richardson that ROK armed forces should conduct the advance into North Korea and play the primary role in the subsequent occupation, with the US forces only providing material support including logistics and intelligence.
However, the unfortunate side of such a plan is that ROK forces are not adequately trained for occupation duty (conscripts generally are not) despite linguistic and cultural advantages they have over US forces regarding North Korea.
This is all the more reason why ROK ought to send more troops to Iraq to acquire as much experience in occupation and nation-building as well as dealing with hostile regime remnants, guerillas and terrorists.
June 14th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
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June 20th, 2008 at 7:34 am
The DPRK`s economic situation and the ability to provide its people with rations in order to survive is completely horrible.
If the DPRK collapsed other nations need to take digression before they make a plan for the DPRK`s future and realize the fierce nationalist spirit of the Korean people.
One has to remember back to the Japanese occupation to of Korea from 1910 to 1945 and realize that Kim Il Sung was originally a Nationalist who wanted nothing more than an Independent Korea from Japan. He was not the first Korean Nationalist, many Koreans at that time felt very strongly in a Korean State that governed itself. After Kim Il Sung became Chairman of North Korea in 1945 he used Juche and created an atmosphere of total Nationalism among the people and through that created his cult of personality. My point is the DPRK is a very nationalist state and there is a possibility that if the DPRK does collapse the people might not welcome the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia with open arms but might actually still fight any nation the enters the DPRK after the government has collapsed.
Though the situation in the DPRK is very dismal there is a possibility the DPRK might not collapse even if Kim Jung Il suddenly dies. Let’s say a Coup takes place by leaders of the KPA and Kim Jung Il dies there is a possibility that someone could take power that is more ruthless and unwilling to talk to Western Powers than Kim Jung Il. If this possibility occurs Korea might be totally destabilized.