North Korea fired three short range surface-to-surface missiles (SSM) from its West Coast this morning. Noting the expulsion of 11 South Korean officials from the Kaesong Industrial Complex yesterday, many pundits and the media were quick to declare the launches part as an orchestrated North Korean attempt to somehow influence South Korea and the U.S.:

Experts said the North was seeking to improve its bargaining leverage by escalating tensions at a time when negotiations with Washington over North Korea’s nuclear program were not proceeding in its favor and South Korea was becoming less generous with economic aid.

Some said it was to influence South Korean elections, or to get a “sensitive” reaction from the South:

Researcher at the Sejong Institute, Song Dae Sung asserted that “the missiles tests seem to have the intention of influencing South Korea’s general elections. North Korea would like the Lee Myung Bak administration blamed for rising tension between the South and the North, thereby encouraging voters to elect the opposition party’s candidates.”

[…]

Researcher of Korea Institute for Defense Analyses Kim Tae Woo revealed that, “What North Korea really wants is for the South to react sensitively to the missile tests.”

Keio University Korea “expert” Masao Okonogi said North Korea was “warning Seoul not to go back on things agreed between the North and the South,” and showing:

… dissatisfaction with Washington’s pressure to come clean on uranium enrichment and ties with Syria, he said. The other was a riposte to the Lee government’s shift in stance.

However, the launch was no surprise, since North Korea declared a no-sailing zone off the coastal city of Nampo earlier this week and placed a military vessel equipped with the missiles in the vicinity.

While all of the above analysis is plausible, none of the mainstream media mentioned a vitally important fact; the Korea People’s Army (KPA) winter training cycle (WTC), which is the most active time of training for North Korea’s military, is ending and short-range missile launches are completely normal. A Google News search for; Korea missile winter training yields a single news source that saw fit to mention the fact; the Daily NK.

Good news analysis of such events should include all the information. When the “experts” don’t mention an obviously relevant facts like the winter training cycle, and instead hype one facet, it detracts from their credibility.

John McCreary, a retired DoD senior executive level intelligence officer who spent years as the senior analyst at the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) J2, provides an example of the more balanced reporting I mention above:

North Korean authorities are prone to use missile launches, including anti-ship missiles, as military demonstrations to influence the political climate with South Korea, the US or Japan. For example they tested the KN-01 on 24 February and 10 March 2003 on the occasion of President Roh’s inauguration five years ago. The first launch on inauguration day failed, so they did a second.

On the other hand, research and development needs and system serviceability requirements are the primary drivers in testing. The timing of a launch, however, is variable because of weather and maintenance as well as politics. Short-range missile launches do not make much of a political statement, but the North Koreans seem to think they make a contribution. (emphasis added)

That’s “the rest of the story.”