New Sheriff in Seoul/Fracture in Pyongyang?
by James Na ~ March 27th, 2008. Filed under: DPRK Military, Diplomacy, Engagement, Human Rights, North Korea, Nuclear Proliferation.North Korea expelled 11 South Korean officials from the Kaesong Industrial Zone in response to rising criticism of its regime and human rights record from the new South Korean administratin of Lee Myung-Bak:
For a month, the new president of South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, has been warning North Korea to clean up its act on human rights and move quickly to get rid of nuclear weapons — if it wants more food aid and economic help from the South.Communist North Korea, though destitute and on the brink of a severe food shortage, made it abundantly clear that it does not want to be lectured to, expelling the 11 officials from the Kaesong industrial zone. One of the few economic bright spots in the North, the zone is a booming factory park just north of the border where about 24,000 North Koreans work for 69 South Korean companies.
Finally, there is a new sheriff in town at the Blue House, the South Korean presidential residence. In response to the expulsion, the Blue House seems to remain firm:
Vice Unification Minister Hong Yang-ho told reporters that the government “will not come up with any ‘carrot’ measures to appease the North in relation to the incident, and has no intention to offer anything to the North,” according to the Yonhap news agency.There are other reasons for North Korea to be annoyed with Lee’s government.
The South, in a break from the past, has said it will support a U.N. Human Rights Council resolution this week that criticizes the North for human rights abuses and calls for a U.N. investigation. [Boldface added.]
In the mean time, the North Korean regime is showing some internal cracks:
North Korean military and industrial officials are “extremely unhappy” with the unprecedented access that U.S. diplomats were given to a missile factory last year, suggesting a split within the North Korean government about a pending deal to abandon its nuclear weapons, according to reports for Congress prepared by a staff member and a former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory who recently traveled to Pyongyang. [Snip.]“Chairman Kim’s best efforts to orchestrate a balance among competing interests within the North may be a ’stretch too far’ for North Korean military hardliners,” [aide to Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) Keith] Luse wrote. “Discarding the jewel of their arsenal will be difficult.”
Among North Korea watchers, there have been discussions about to what extent Kim Jong-Il is able to maintain the total command of the North Korean ruling apparatus that his father achieved during the latter’s lifetime.
Clearly, Kim Jong-Il has neither the charisma nor the military credentials (invented or otherwise) of his father. For a while, it seemed that he was able to strike some internal balance among competing factions of the ruling apparatus, likely siding with the military hardliners.
Although the pressure from the United States has waned, perhaps due to other geostrategic and political considerations of the lameduck presidency of George W. Bush, the election of a conservative president in Seoul has increased external pressure on the North Korean regime. While few expect an imminent collapse or dissolution of the North Korean regime, it is not difficult to imagine increasing challenges to Kim Jong-Il’s rule as factional interests fracture the regime and Kim becomes unable to muster the absolute authority to abjudicate such internal disputes as his father was able to do.
To paraphrase a hackneyed expression: “situation dynamic, bears watching.”
March 28th, 2008 at 12:13 am
The temper tantrums of Kim Jong Il when things do not go his way are not new nor surprising. The entrance of a conservative president was almost a guarantee Kim would balk. The expulsion of the other jewel of the Roh administration proved one thing: The cooperation was not mutual: it had to be on Kim’s terms and Kim’s terms only which is something we all knew anyway. However, it was regarded as “Oh, if we throw enough cash and goodies Kim’s way, he might come out of his cave.” Kim has no intention of coming out of his cave. he will remain an asshole until the entire thing crumbles around him which appears to be happening now.
Now that human rights, a real declaration and repatriation of abducted citizens (etc.), Kim does not like that. He wants no action on his part. While he kicks and cries the evil imperialists were not doing their part after the declaration was lost in the mail in November, he expected more things for the process of the disablement to continue (not even the first phase has been completed yet), and now it is blowing up in his face. So the bottom line is, another stalemate is here and it is my guess until he is gone, it will remain that way. Now it is only a matter of time before his own people get sick and tired of his rule and things just fall apart.
As suggested in your other posting of the future of the Kim regime and state, these reckless policies of Kim will most likely be the eventual downfall of his facade/Utopian state and it seems to me little outside help may be needed to push it over the edge. Now what could change things is who is elected in the upcoming elections in the United States. I really believe it will be a Democratic one, and many will disagree with me on this one, but I really do not think ANY of them will be useful in the Korean problem.
Now with that said, the crappy nuke program is the ace Kim clearly does not want to depart with, and is clearly using every tactic in his political arsenal to gain leverage. He has been waving this thing for years now, and when the scientists visited Yongbyon, it was clear to me that place is such disrepair I was very surprised anything came from that pile of junk. Now the question remains on if he has other programs going that are in better shape than Yongbyon. That I cannot prove, but the chemical and biological weapons (as reported by a former guard of camp 22) are enough for me to conclude (which was not part of the goody deal in the first place) Kim has no intention whatsoever to play nice in the International community.
While all of this political squabbling is going on, his people continue to starve now hitting the elites and even policy elites. This is not good news for Kim if it proves to be true. Kim Jong Il, once he loses the support of the KPA, KWP and his elites (I believe the “middle class”) start to realize he is not delivering, they may simply go their own way and not follow him anymore. As you know, the fear and propaganda apparatus is eroding but not to the level where it should cause alarm at this point in time, but going without food and other perks long enough, it will happen.
March 28th, 2008 at 1:01 am
[...] get a better understanding of this, see DPRK Studies post on the expulsion of the folks from Kaesong and the possible fractures within K…. This is no surprise, and this happened before when Kim got mad, so this is ruffling the feathers [...]
March 28th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
That was Richardson’s post, not mine.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
I meant DPRK Studies as a whole, not individual authors.
March 29th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
[...] posting with never before seen photos of the 1919 Samil Movement. - A new Sheriff in Seoul or fractures in Pyongyang?- Another temper tantrum from Kim Jong-il. - "It is becoming problem for Korea. Many foreign [...]
March 30th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Right, go it, Jack.
March 30th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
James Na: Go what? :confused:
March 30th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Jack,
I meant “Got it,” as in, I understood your March 28th post.
March 30th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Oh OK. I was confused there. Please forgive me.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Jack,
Nothing to forgive at all. If anything, it’s my fault for making a spelling error and confusing you.
Nonetheless, I appreciate the friendly reply.