The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College released a paper on 24 March by Dr. Andrew Scobell titled, “Projecting Pyongyang: The Future of North Korea’s Kim Jong Il Regime.” (h/t MS) A brief abstract:

The author seeks to assist planners and decisionmakers in thinking about and preparing for possible future contingencies concerning North Korea. He does not dwell on war or conflict scenarios involving North Korea because military planners have already focused considerable effort and attention on these. It is entirely possible that the fate of the country as a political, territorial, and juridical entity is intimately bound up with the fate of the Kim Jong Il regime, but one should not assume this to be so. In other words, the collapse of the Kim regime may not lead to the collapse of North Korea as a state. Moreover, one should not assume that even if the regime collapse is followed by state collapse that these events would inexorably lead to Korean unification.

The author on page 8-9 describes the North Korea as “post-totalitarian,” which is marked by, among other things, the dictator’s power weakening (see Figure 1). I’m not sure I agree with that. Several other markers associated with that label are present (i.e. eroded central economy), but I don’t see any credible evidence that Kim Jong-il’s power has weakened considerable.

I haven’t read the entire study yet, and may have more comments later.