The Market for Elite North Korean Defectors
by Richardson ~ January 15th, 2008. Filed under: Defectors & Refugees, Kim Jong-il, North Korea.If this is true – and I have my doubts, though anything is possible with Kim Jong-il – then the pool of disaffected elites from the DPRK regime is about to grow dramatically, which could result is a cohort of several thousand with the motivation and funds to leave North Korea:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il instructed on Dec. 29 that all of the regime’s institutions, including the Workers` Party, the cabinet, the military and national security agency, reduce their bureaucracies and the number of senior officials by 30 percent beginning in 2008, according to a well-informed source on Pyongyang’s internal affairs.
“High ranking officials are very anxious about the restructuring since those who may lose their posts will either be forced to retire or be transferred to the workforce,” according to the source.
Going “to the workforce” could be a death sentence in North Korea. While reforms and reductions in staffs may well be occurring, it is unlikely that deep cuts would be made in military agencies as they are the foundation of Kim Jong-il’s power, and due to the fact mentioned above – those with intimate knowledge of the regime and enough assets to buy there way out. Such a policy would be the gift that keeps on giving for Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies.
January 16th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Lean Six Sigma.
January 17th, 2008 at 12:54 am
You mean to tell me while Bush has been growing the size of government(which has made him a phoney conservative), KJI is cutting the size of government? That crackling sound must be hell freezing over.
January 17th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
I had two initial thoughts on this:
1. It fits with my guess that the regime is hurting much more, perhaps critically so, than we can tell.
I can’t say it is a clear or strong piece of evidence, by I would guess it is the kind of step he would have to take if he were feeling a big pinch and were paranoid about a possible collapse in the near future.
If South Korea, with the election, was about to become a questionable source of funding at levels the regime needs, when it needs more but will probably at least get some left from GNP-held Blue House, and there is no good way to force increases in aid from China or the US, and there is the now clearly defined threat to vital resources abroad as demonstrated by Bush’s previous banking sanctions —- cutting costs at home would be one clear avenue to consider.
My guess is that if government “downsizing” is going to happen —- it will be of the “purge” variety.
How fast and how public did the Kim’s get rid of the Korea-Japanese that came over?
How fast and public and efficient were the purges of the Soviet-centered communists and the Mao-centered communists back in the day as Kim Il Sung set his dynasty in stone?
If I were any kind of mid-level and higher government figure, in the military or not, I’d be shitting my pants right night waiting for some army transport to pull up at my apartment building in the dead of night to load my family on - dead or alive - to take me to one of the concentration camps.
I don’t think Kim will think that he can afford to simply sack these people. Too much risk. And besides, if you erase them from society, you get all their stuff too - or get to divy all their stuff up to others you need to keep happy…..in good gangster fashion.
2. Analyzing this move should lead us somewhat into a better realization about why the regime is incapable of reforming like the world has wanted for years:
Trimming the costs associated with mammoth socialist (really feudal) state is necessary, but trying to do so is filled with countless land mines.
Basically, Kim Jong Il needs to attempt total control, because his dynasty has used such control for so long, it rightfully fears blowing itself up with such reforms.
I don’t know the North Korean mind well enough to make any of this more than a guess….
…but given clear facts that we do know about how the regime has ruled and what pressures it faces in terms of material wealth, I don’t see how Kim could “reform” the government without purges - and maybe even those purges won’t work this time…..not like they did in the past, I’d bet…
January 17th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
RPI, RPI, RPI!
January 17th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Looks like the South Korean government will be laying off its North Korean spies too, since the Unification Ministry will be closed down. Times are tough for totalitarians these days!
January 18th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
You mean to tell me while Bush has been growing the size of government(which has made him a phoney conservative), KJI is cutting the size of government? That crackling sound must be hell freezing over.
Hehehe.
January 18th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
From what I’ve seen, our federal workforce has enough dead wood to cut 30 percent and be better off.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:40 am
Seems like KJI is acting like “The Bulldozer”.
KJI to Pres. Lee: “You aint the only one who likes to fire people, plus if the unemployed get rowdy, I can just stuff them in some re-education camp, later for water cannons(since were low on that too).”