North Korea Inspired Syrian Reactor Site, Before and After
by Richardson ~ October 26th, 2007. Filed under: Nuclear Proliferation, Syria.Commercial satellite photos from 10 August (left) and 24 October (right) show the Syrian facility near the Euphrates River, rumored to be an unfinished nuclear reactor site being constructed with the assistance of North Korea, bombed by Israel in September:
The Syrians claim it was a warehouse; Israel says the fast cleanup of the site shows Syria had something to hide:
Senior Syrian officials continue to deny that a nuclear reactor was under construction, insisting that what Israel hit was a largely empty military warehouse.
But the images, federal and private analysts said Thursday, suggest that the Syrian authorities rushed to dismantle the facility after the strike, saying its removal could be interpreted as a tacit admission of guilt.“It’s a magic act — here today, gone tomorrow,” said a senior intelligence official. “It doesn’t lower suspicions; it raises them. This was not the long-term decommissioning of a building, which can take a year. It was speedy. It’s incredible that they could have gone to that effort to make something go away.”
The bottom line is that we (the public) still don’t know, and it could have in fact been a partially constructed reactor (which North Korea is not prohibited from helping with, as long as no nuclear materials or technology is transferred), a missile site (warehouse), or even the much less probable innocent warehouse suggested by Syrian officials.
Related posts:
- More on the Isreal-Syria Bombing Saga: “Mole” Took Pics
- Has Syria Confirmed an IAF Attack on a Nuclear Facility?
- A Plausible Syria-North Korea Nuclear Scenario: Reactor
- Israeli Intel on Syria, North Korea Sparks Bush Admin Debate
- East Asia Intel: Israel Hit North Korean Missiles in Syria
- Speculation on the North Korea-Syria Nuclear Connection
October 27th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
They definitely did a good job dismantling the site. I would assume intelligence agencies had satellites that watched the whole thing be dismantled.
October 27th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
[...] Koreas- Google Earth images of the before and after the North Korean nuclear facility have been published.- It is about time [...]
October 29th, 2007 at 6:53 am
You’re probably right; Israel (and others) may have learned more from the cleanup than anything else!
November 6th, 2007 at 12:10 am
Dear Richardson,
In general, I am not one to water statistics; however, in this case I believe that prudence dictates evaluation of the possibility that Syria may not be pursuing a nuclear weapons program. In your post you discussed that “Israel says the fast cleanup of the site shows Syria had something to hide.” Such a statement may well be correct and certainly, a “fast cleanup” regarding an issue of this level of sensitivity necessitates suspicion. In this case, it would seem that Syria is hiding something, but the most important question is whether Syria is attempting to conceal strength or weakness? A cornered animal is not safe, which is to say, taking away a state’s options is a dangerous policy if the ability to wage war has not been likewise removed. Although history may not be an accurate guide for current or future foreign policy prescriptions, in this case, it would be wise to take note of the fact that in the recent past, the world experienced a similar situation in Iraq.
Syria is currently in a tough position for any state. Iraq, after the Persian Gulf War, appeared to carry on a similar game of charades. While the presence WMDs within Iraq remains a contentious issue, there were reasons for the majority of Western intelligence groups to believe that Iraq did indeed have such programs because of the stance taken by Saddam Hussein. Saddam was stuck between a rock and a hard place. While appearing to seek and possess WMDs put Iraq at risk for a clash with the West, not having the deterrent value of these weapons may well have placed Iraq at greater risk vis-à-vis their neighbors. Both Syria and states which oppose a nuclear Syria must examine their perceptions of the intentions and capabilities of one another in earnest in order to circumvent the possibility for error surrounding guessing. As Sir Arthur Conon Doyle wrote: “I never guess. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” Syria would do well to select its reactions and statements carefully or risk a misunderstanding leading to a possible preemptive war. The intentions of Syria, which were already in doubt around the globe, have been further clouded by this recent event.
That Syria is hiding something appears obvious. However, there is the possibility that they are hiding a lack of nuclear capability. Their desire to deceive the world may be a response to a regional security dilemma, which Syria may perceive as a greater threat than intervention from the Western powers. Sometimes looking like a bully is enough to cause peers to fear you, even if no one has been witness to such evidence.
Thanks for your time.
SDR http://www.proliferationandpowerpolitics.blogspot.com
November 6th, 2007 at 9:16 am
Hello SDR, thanks for the comment.
You said;
The quote you point to indicates what Israel said, not what I asses or state. In fact I said, “rumored to be an unfinished nuclear reactor site,” and from an earlier post said:
I don’t think I’ve stated anywhere in related posts that I think Syria is in fact pursuing a nuclear program. It’s possible, maybe even likely, but I’ve not assessed that.
I do agree with you on Iraq WMD and suggest this article (Atlantic Monthly, Jan/Feb 2004): Spies, Lies, and Weapons: What Went Wrong. (PDF)