The Latest Six-Party Talks Deal: North Korea to Dislcose HEU Program
by Richardson ~ October 3rd, 2007. Filed under: Diplomacy, Engagement, Nuclear Proliferation, Six-Party Talks.I remain skeptical about both the time line of this agreement to disable Yongbyon and disclose nuclear programs, as well as the overall viability of negotiations with North Korea:
The United States said on Tuesday it had approved a tentative deal for North Korea to disclose all its nuclear programs and disable its Yongbyon atomic plant.
[…]
Separately, the top U.S. negotiator with North Korea said he expected China to announce the deal, hammered out over the weekend in talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States, in the next day or two.
If approved by all six parties and carried out by North Korea, the agreement would mark a step toward the U.S. goal of getting North Korea to abandon all its nuclear weapons and atomic programs.
[…]
Many analysts are skeptical North Korea will ever fully abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs as it promised in a September 2005 six-party agreement.
However, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill told reporters he hoped by year-end to see Yongbyon disabled and to have a full declaration of its nuclear programs, including how much fissile material it has, as well as “a very clear situation on the uranium enrichment.” (emphasis added)
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“We have had, I think, some intensive and productive discussions on … the issue of resolving our concerns about uranium enrichment,” Hill told reporters in New York.
Questions; a) what about the nuclear weapons, and b) what about all the other suspected nuclear facilities in North Korea?
October 3rd, 2007 at 10:39 am
[…] (See DPRK Studies) China announced a timetable I wonder the same thing. How will anybody know the full extent of the […]
October 3rd, 2007 at 10:47 am
I am wondering the same thing. I guess we can trust Kim now…
October 3rd, 2007 at 11:24 am
While it IS possible that the North Korean regime is at its wit’s end and may take to the road that Qaddafi/Libya took, the first obvious thought that comes to my mind is that North Korea is trying to appease the South Korean electorate in order to help elect a North Korea-friendly administration in Seoul again.
However, given the very deep unpopularity of the incumbents, I do not think this ploy, if it is indeed that, will work.
North Korea does loom large in South Korean politics, but there are other, frankly more important, factors, at least in the psyche of the South Korean electorate at this point.
October 3rd, 2007 at 7:57 pm
I don’t think it’s politically possible to Kim to go the route of Qaddafi - aside from undermining the cult, the military won’t stand for that. Perhaps to set things up for the next ruler, but that would be near difficult to accomplish if one of his sons is selected to take the mantle.
October 3rd, 2007 at 10:57 pm
I agree the Qaddafi option is highly unlikely and believe that the move is designed to bolster the left in South Korea.
However, it is possible, however remote, that the North Korean regime might relinquish the nuclear option, especially if it believed that its grip on power can be maintained without it.
As predictions go, extreme low probability/high effect events are difficult to predict, but they do happen, if rarely.
October 4th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
They may give up a lot, but they could have a dozen other UGF with other plants that we know nothing of, which makes verification, thus complying with the deal, very difficult. It should (will?) involve many inspections at “military” facilities. I think the military wouldn’t stand for that, but perhaps. I’ll agree it’s in the realm of possibilities, but very far down in probability.