“A Higher Level” – The Second North-South Summit
by Richardson ~ August 8th, 2007. Filed under: Diplomacy, Economics, Engagement, Korean Politics.Update 4: Bruce Klinger in an article entitled, “Seoul’s Impetuous Summit Initiative” (H/T Paul) gives some details on the mechanics of the deal for the second North-South summit, and speculates on the likelihood of another massive cash infusion to pay for the honor of meeting Kim Jong-il:
It is unlikely that Seoul made a secret cash payment to induce Pyongyang to the meeting, given the scrutiny that followed revelations that the Kim Dae-Jung administration paid at least $500 million to secure the 2000 summit. But Kim Jong-Il does not cooperate for free; thus the Roh Moo Hyun administration probably offered some inducement, such as new developmental aid or expansion of existing South-North economic projects.
Be sure to read the rest of the story.
Update 3: After reading a few more reports and considering the information, it’s likely that North Korea agreeing to the August summit is a precursor to once again delaying or otherwise reneging the 13 February agreement (DOC) to denuclearize. This falls in the pattern of appearing to engage – by taking actions that could have been taken at any prior time and would have indicated actual sincerity if done during Six-Party Talks and related negotiations – only to break off said engagement soon thereafter. The regime feigned many such positive moves only to backtrack later during negotiations leading to the 1994 Agreed Framework.
Now that North Korea has agreed to meet with Roh in August, it would not be surprising if North Korea made the summit conditional on suspending Ulchi Focus Lens, a joint U.S.-ROK exercise that the northern regime has railed against for years, which is scheduled to occur this August.
Update 2: A quote from presidential chief secretary for security affairs Baek Jong-chun:
“The second inter-Korean summit will serve as a stepping stone for the establishment of a peace framework on the Korean Peninsula through frank discussions on the issue by the two leaders… At the summit, the two leaders will also discuss new initiatives to raise inter-Korean economic ties and exchanges in terms of both quality and quantity… With the second summit, a foundation for regular inter Korean summits should be established…”
A, “a stepping stone for the establishment of a peace framework on the Korean Peninsula”? This bit of hollow rhetoric raises more questions than answers for anyone paying attention to the peninsula for the last couple of decades. For example, wasn’t the last inter-Korea summit, seven years ago, supposed to do that? What about the 1994 Agreed Framework and all the related inter-Korea nuclear deals that were to lead to a “peace framework”? What about the last eight plus years of “Sunshine Policy” with no reciprocal action on the part of the Kim Jong-il regime? And despite all of that, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons.
Planning for this event must have been going on between the two governments for awhile, so yesterday’s exchange of fire along the DMZ may or may not have been directed from Pyongyang.
The opposition Grand National Party has raised some very valid concerns that Roh is pulling a election year stunt (particularly in light of Roh’s demonstrated disdain for election laws):
“We are deeply concerned that the government is pushing ahead with a second inter-Korean summit through behind-the-scenes procedures and just a few months ahead of the [December] presidential election. . . The question is whether holding a summit between the two Koreas now is appropriate. This inter-Korean summit is highly likely to be a trick to prevent the opposition from taking power by creating a political stir before the election.”
Also see the Yonhap report on the Roh-Kim summit.
Update 1: Also see posts at the Marmot’s, ROK Drop, and the Lost Nomad’s.
Original post: A “higher level” of crack use, perhaps:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun will hold a summit later this month aimed at raising relations between the two nations “to a higher level,” according to a joint statement released by their respective governments on Wednesday.
The two Koreas’ second-ever summit is set to take place on August 28-30 in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang.
The summit is the second in seven years between the two nations, since Kim met then-South Korean President Kim Dae-jung in June 2000. (emphasis added)
Let’s take a moment to remember that in 2000 Kim Dae-jung arranged for Kim Jong-il to receive ~$500,000,000 (yes, half a billion dollars) to meet with him. What has Roh promised Kim for this summit? Also, in 2000 Kim Jong-il vowed to come to Seoul for a summit, something that Kim Dae-jung is still no doubt hoping for.
August 8th, 2007 at 7:42 am
Greetings Richardson: My recollection of the 2000 summit may well need refreshment and correction: the agreement to hold the summit was financed by chaebol money, no? If so, would the senior chaebol individual who put forth the money do so again? After his experience, would any such individual play financier for a summit, and if so, why? Further: if public money is key this time, how would the necessary appropriation or authorization fare in the National Assembly? Is it possible that the Kim family regime so fears that the Kim Dae-jung - Roh Moo-hyun era may be ending that they are willing to put on a photo-op show without extortionate payment so to try to aid the fortunes of Chung Dong-young or similar candidate?
Many thanks for the close attention you pay to the fortunes of the Korean nation.
August 8th, 2007 at 9:38 am
Hi Rand,
Thanks for the comment. You’re correct that Hyundai gave a large portion of that half billion; $200 million. This was arranged by the late founder of Hyundai, Jung Ju-yung (정주영), who was originally from North Korea and had high hopes for peace in his time. I am not sure where the rest of the $500 million figure came from but do not doubt it. Reports from 2003 indicated that Kim Dae-jung arranged for as much as 2 trillion won (then $1.7 billion) to be sent to North Korea in return for the June 2000 North-South summit.
I don’t think it matters what percentage of funds were public (Hyundai shareholders may disagree since Jung basically gave away their profits) since the in the end it will all go to the same end; propping up the tyrannical regime elite, directly or indirectly allowing for more to be spent on military and nuclear programs, and prolonging the suffering of untold thousands in concentrations camps.
So far I haven’t seen any info on what’s gone on behind the scenes to secure this summit and don’t expect to for some time. Rumors of Kim Dae-jung’s purchasing his summit took awhile to get started and weren’t verified until after he received the Nobel Peace Prize.
August 8th, 2007 at 9:53 am
I am not too well-versed on the South’s motivation to the summit other than the basic idea of the appearances of good will to all of Korea and eventual unification (I am studying the south now). Looking below the surface, it is not (in my opinion)benefiting Korean people but Kim Jong Il. Looking at this from the North Korean humanitarian standpoint, it is only going to further the suffering.
While money gets thrown at the problem, KJI continues to be sustained. KJI makes all sorts of empty promises, pretends to listen and put on a smiling face (Hey, it works in the propaganda, right?). Then when it is time to act, he is the same self-serving asshat. As I said before, I still do not understand why the international community continues to court this madman.
August 8th, 2007 at 10:00 am
Hello again Richardson; quite agree with the evil end of any payments, be they currency or in kind. Very sad day it was when the carefully targeted USA sanctions, which clearly were working, were incontinently discarded to chase after a nuclear “agreement”. I remain curious about the mechanics of it since I imagine that a large portion of the public in free Korea would be alert to attempts by the Roh administration to buy the heralded event. Does the national executive have legal leeway to transfer a single large sum without oversight? If not, to gather a sum would they skim budgets of x-number of national departments or agencies for momentarily unspecified purposes?
August 8th, 2007 at 10:14 am
As for update 3, it goes with the theory of disengagement. Backpeddle and continue to wave the carrot…
August 8th, 2007 at 10:59 am
Rand, I’m not sure how long before the details behind this summit’s deal making is made known, and I’m also interested in that. As for the legal leeway; I doubt KDJ had it and that didn’t stop him. In the ROK the law is flexible. Right now the vast majority of aid given to North Korea has no oversight.
Jack, Yep, and they never learn!
August 8th, 2007 at 11:06 am
Heh, a lot like North Korea’s promise to use the tainted $25 million for education and humanitarian purposes. It is lot a like giving a meth head money on the street money and they promise to buy food with it.
It is beyond hilarious. It is just sad.
August 8th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
all i want to know is, how much did this one cost?
August 8th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
I totally believe Roh is trying to pull an election year stunt. This is optimal timing for such a stunt, and I doubt KJI needs much inducement other than to keep the GNP from gaining power in the December elections.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/world/20070809TDY05006.htm
I just hope that the USA and GNP are very delicate with how any action they take looks to the SK voters. KJI and Roh are going to have to do something pretty extreme to sway the election, considering how far ahead in the polls the GNP is.
Something like a framework for reunification. And pictures of them holding hands raised high in unity all over the newspapers with headlines screaming something epochal like “UNIFICATION AT LAST!” or whatever.
I just hope the SK people are on to it, and not caught up into some emotional frenzy romantic lie.
It will be very interesting.