North Korea Finally Shuts Down Yongbyon Nuclear Reactor
by Richardson ~ July 14th, 2007. Filed under: Diplomacy, Engagement, Nuclear Proliferation, Six-Party Talks.Update: Not that it will change the outcome any, but the order of how North Korea will break its word should be kept clear; the WaPo states that, “The next steps, as outlined in the accord, would be for North Korea to permanently disable the reactor…” Not really, as the first step was, “1. The DPRK will shut down and seal for the purpose of eventual abandonment the Yongbyon nuclear facility…” (which also goes to Jack’s question in comments), while the second step is, “2. The DPRK will discuss with other parties a list of all its nuclear programs…” The “abandonment” of the reactor has a timeline currently defined as, “eventual,” due to the fact that this was not an all encompassing agreement, despite those that have attempted to paint it that way.
Original Post: Three months to the day after the original 14 April deadline stipulated in the 13 February agreement (DOC), North Korea has met it’s obligation to shutdown the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon:
North Korea has told the United States it has shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facilities, the State Department said on Saturday as a team of U.N. nuclear inspectors arrived in Pyongyang.
Standby for the next reneging over the declarations of all nuclear programs that North Korea must submit as part of the agreement. But they are inventive and will probably figure out something else to delay even than reneging. Bottom line; North Korea can’t deal honestly.
July 15th, 2007 at 12:10 am
I have been reading conflicting reports. I read from them shutting it down to only suspension. I am suspecting only suspension. The nuclear stuff is Kim’s ultimate ace for leverage.
He’s not going to get rid of it. I simply cannot see that. He needs his meal ticket.
July 15th, 2007 at 1:03 am
Kim has a master plan:
1.Shut down the reactor since the bank in Macau gave them back their money and they have just received fuel from SK.
2.Continue to placate the West while giving Roh a reason to conduct a summit as he winds down his term. Even if the GNP wins in Dec., behaving himself will fool the US and SK under Bak or Park to go easy on him.
Kim is only putting on a good show because the Chicoms dont want any trouble, their coming out party is more than a year from now. However, KJI will never ever dismantle NK’s nuke program. KJI isnt Gaddafi, he has no oil revenue to rely on.
July 15th, 2007 at 8:34 am
What new demands for aid will we see now that NK has agreed to sit down at 6 party talks again? If these new talks stick to discussing only features of the already-signed deal - like how to move forward on implementation - without fresh demands, I’ll die of a heart attack…
July 15th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Jack,
I think the difference between “shutdown” and “suspension” is not a big deal in this case, where “shutdown” is comparable to turning off a vehicle. It can be turned back on, but it is “shutdown,” its operation is “suspended.” Probably the North Koreans prefer “suspension” terminology as it implies temporarily.
July 15th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
Well, from the reports, it is clear the US wants a dismantling (and I have to agree with that) but as it said, it is only a “first step”. This game has been going on for years as you well know, and will continue that way.
You are right when suspension and shutdown is not really a big deal, but it just goes with the usual game Kim plays.
July 15th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
[...] sure you check out DPRK Studies as well as One Free Korea for even greater analysis on this [...]
July 15th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
Time for a Summit, oh and lots of cash, plenty of promises and then the inevitable backslide. Wash-rinse and repeat cycle.
July 15th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
Another summit is a great idea. Roh could probably get at least 200 family reunions for only US$1 billion. Yep, de ja vu, again.
July 19th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
I’ve been thinking more about this, maybe it just broke down. Not that that hasn’t happened a dozen or so times in the last 10 years.
July 25th, 2007 at 9:46 am
According to Richard Holloran, it could be a wooden nickel.
November 2nd, 2007 at 3:24 am
You know…. I was wondering the same thing, and thought, “I bet DPRK Studies has some good answers on that.”
Richardson, is there a way to launch a counter-attack on spam like that?
November 2nd, 2007 at 5:10 am
Kevin,
I use the anti-spam plug-ins Akismet and Bad Behavior - but sometimes they miss. When I manually mark those comments that get through spam, those two plug-ins learn, so next time they won’t make it.
Spam is like taxes and death - no escape…