What if Kim Jong-il Died… Today? (Part 1)
by Richardson ~ July 10th, 2007. Filed under: China-Korea Relations, DPRK Military, Defectors & Refugees, Kim Jong-il, Korean Politics, North Korea, Nuclear Proliferation, Reunification, U.S. Military.Update 2: via NightWatch:
Today, however, Japan Today and the South Korean daily Yonhap reported that Kim Jong-nam still lives in China, but made one of his periodic visits to Pyongyang in June.
Update: “Kim Jong-il’s Eldest Son ‘Back in Pyongyang”
The eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-nam (36) has returned to Pyongyang and is working at the Organization and Guidance Department of North Korea’s Worker’s Party, an intelligence source said Sunday. The department is the key agency that controls all of the party, the military and the government of North Korea. This has prompted analysts to speculate about a reconciliation and the possibility that Jopng-nam, who has been living in exile in Macau, could inherit the leadership instead of his younger half-brothers Jong-chul (26) and Jong-woon (24), who were variously tipped for the succession.
This may or may not mean something - only time will tell.
Original post: With rumors of Kim Jong-il having heart surgery (as well as denials and alternate theories), and other medical issues, the question of what will happen in North Korea when Kim Jong-il dies is once again being examined. A topic Kim is rumored to have forbidden discussion of, despite not having named a successor, at least that is known outside elite circles in Pyongyang.
North Korea could continue with dynastic succession, although none of Kim’s sons are currently positioned to be strong leaders. Or perhaps the highest ranking members of the National Defense Commission (NDC), Korean People’s Army (KPA), Korea Workers Party (KWP), Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), etc. will form a government, interim or otherwise (which could also direct a figurehead in a dynastic scenario).
Some of the other options include the military exercising sole control (as the single organization powerful enough to do so), Chinese intervention, or even a breakdown into chaos, infighting among the military for control, floods of refugees, etc. The latter scenarios could lead to a peaceful reunification in the short-term, a second Korean War, or could trigger U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) to initiate OPLAN 5029, the course of action for controlling WMD and refugees.
Dynastic Succession
Currently none of Kim Jong-il’s sons – Kim Jong-nam (김정남), Kim Jong-chol (김정철), and Kim Jong-eun (김정운) – are thought to be positioned to take the mantle of leadership should Kim die, unlike the decades of preparation Kim himself had before Kim Il-sung died in July 1994.
Kim Jong-nam, born in May of 1971, currently 36 years old. He attended elite KWP schools in North Korea and later studied in Switzerland. Appointed to a senior position in the Ministry of Public Security in 1998 and later as head of the DPRK Computer Committee. Jong-nam likely fell out of favor for succession in May 2001 when he was arrested at Japan’s Narita International Airport traveling on a forged Dominican Republic passport, and using a Chinese alias (Pang Xiong).
He has reportedly been living in Macao for the past three years, though likely travels often and may have other residences. So it seems he may have been starting down the path of successor, but working (or whatever he does) outside the country for the last several years is not a sign that he has been designated to follow the “Great” and “Dear” leaders.
Kim Jong-chol, born in September of 1981 and currently 25 years old. Like Jong-nam, Jong-chol attended KWP schools in North Korea, and later went to school in Switzerland. After Kim Jong-nam’s Tokyo Disneyland fiasco, it was thought that Jong-chol could be in line for power (rumors about “the commander” in both 2005 and 2006).
Jong-chol is still thought to be a contender, however, because a campaign beginning in August 2002 to extol his mother, Ko Yong Hee, was initiated in much the same fashion as a previous campaign to do the same for Kim Jong-il’s mother (Kim Jong-suk) before he was named heir. There were reports of Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) officials wearing pins or badges with Jong-chol’s image. However he is also rumored to be very effeminate (though he reportedly had a girlfriend in 2006) and therefore not in favor with Kim Jong-il.
Kim Jong-eun (also Romanized as Jong-eu and Jong-woon), born in 1983 and currently 24 years old, is thought by Kim Jong-il’s former chef, Kenji Fujimoto (who also said Jong-chol is considered effeminate), to be favored for succession despite his youth as he is “exactly like his father” and to “resemble him in every way.” The apparent deification of Jong-eun’s mother, Ko, could also be laying the foundation for his future leadership role, however some may consider him “too callow for political work.” Another rumor has Jong-eun being dubbed the, “Morning Star King” by his mother, spurring speculation there. (No photos of Kim Jong-eun are are known to be available; the sketch at right is all that is currently available.)
There is also speculation that Kim Jong-il’s 32 year old nephew, the son of Jang Song-taek (who is married to Kim’s sister, Kim Kyong-hui), is being groomed as either the next leader or possible an interim leader, though that is doubtful as it would risk the Kim Dynasty for a Jang Dynasty.
Some have argued that the still strong Confucian ethic and respect for seniority in North Korea tends to favor Jong-nam, the disintegration of much of North Korean society since the mid 1990s (rampant bribery, mafia-like social structures, etc.) makes me question such assertions.
The bottom line for dynastic succession in North Korea is this: we have no idea. All three sons have strengths and weaknesses, and Kim Jong-il’s apparent hesitation to publicly name a successor may indicate he is undecided (or that he doesn’t want to make that son a target).
(to be continuted…)
July 11th, 2007 at 10:40 am
Let’s just say I hope it collapses before a successor is named and takes the helm. If the a successor does take the helm, let us hope there is enough turmoil the regime collapses on itself. Or better yet, have the all the Kims and the cronies sent to the gallows.
July 11th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
I also prefer collapse to a continuation of the dynasty, but collapse carries it’s own risks, such as loss of control of nukes and other WMD, as well as chaos leading to war. There are no good options for North Korea.
July 11th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Heh, what I wish and what will really happen are two different things. In all seriousness (as serious this topic is), the lack of a successor in the reported health KJI is in, chaos can ensue if there is nobody to take the reigns.
As you stated in your post, there is no way to know who is next in line let alone the details of such because Kim reportedly does not want anybody to know. I read some things that may suggest who may be next in line because of the hints of the start of the propaganda, lapels and the like, but it is not on the scale large enough to warrant to know for sure at this point.
As you know, the propaganda crafted for KJI was was well established before he took full power, but I do not know if the propaganda started before he was named or after he was named. If it started before he was named, this may be significant because if the people are not well indoctrinated on what the new leader did, could it cause confusion?
So now once the new leader is named, does everybody have to add a picture to the wall? How much more money will be spent on making monuments? The logistics of adding another leader to the story is getting more and more complex, and like any lie, lies cannot sustain itself for very long before it gets downright silly. However, this is North Korea, and they are masters of propaganda, so I am sort of interested on what kind of stories they will brew up.
Now in the case if Kim should die suddenly, I cannot help but to see only chaos ensuing. The government could grind to a halt temporarily (which could be a serious problem), collapsing entirely (an even more serious problem), and power struggles within the government.
Alright, now comes to how the problem will be dealt with in the event the government should collapse or somebody decides, in times of desperation, to use weapons or weapons of mass destruction. As the resolution you linked to (OPLAN 5029), it implied nobody really agreed to everything. So with the political wrangling on how to deal with the problem, if it does collapse suddenly without any solid plan, the results could mean disaster. I personally would not like to see that. Also, with Seoul and other highly populated areas, all it takes is some rocket or simple chaos on the DMZ to start the Korean War all over again. As you said, there are no good options, and in my opinion, desperate damage control.
So, in my opinion, we are in the position (along with others) to keep North Korea at bay, keep the Kims floating as much as possible, and basically ignore the atrocities happening inside the fortified walls until something can be decided upon. Unimaginable crimes against humanity are happening there, and it seems there is really no way to solve that problem without serious difficulty and huge loss of life.
July 11th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
(OPLAN 5029), it implied nobody really agreed to everything.
This is what I found most disturbing — its a non-plan plan. There would be hundreds of thousands of refugees stacking up at the border and we’ll be standing there like retards with no idea of what to do with them or if we should even intervene should the regime start slaughtering them.
I don’t care if us or the ROK take the lead, but we all need an agreed upon executable plan, and we need it now, and it needs to account for the worst.
July 11th, 2007 at 8:57 pm
Jack;
Great points, and I will incorporate some of your info into the follow-on posts.
PA;
Yes and no. Just b/c South Korea nixed collaboration, do you think USFK is sitting there with no plan? If that scenario happens, the U.S. will act, or the ROKA will, but doing nothing almost certainly will not occur, if the conditions are right. BTW, saw the related post at your site and should have time to leave a comment tomorrow.
July 16th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
GENTLEMEN,
AS USUAL YOUR INSIGHTS INTO THIS DIFFICULT REGION AND THE QUESTIONS YOU RAISE FOR US AS AMERICANS IS BOTH EDUCATIONAL AND ENLIGHTENING. CLEARLY YOU ARE THE EXPERTS IN THIS AREA. THAT SAID, IF THERE SHOULD BE A POWER STRUGGLE IN THE EVENT OF A DEATH IN NORTH KOREA, I THINK THIS SHOULD BE VIEWED AS AN OPPORTUNITY (YES AGAIN-ONE MORE TIME FOR PEACE-SAKE) TO WORK TOWARD A MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN OUR NATIONS. WE MUST ENDEAVOR TO PROMOTE THE EMERGENCE OF A FREE AND UNITED KOREA IN MY OPINION SO OUR FOCUS IS NOT DISTRACTED FROM OUR MORE IMMEDIATE AND DANGEROUS PROBLEM, IRAN.
WITH REGARD,
KELLER
July 21st, 2007 at 4:47 pm
It is a ridiculous theory, a real dream for USA.
July 22nd, 2007 at 12:58 am
LOL, A DREAM MAYBE BUT PEACE IS ALWAYS PREFERABLE TO THE VERY REAL NIGHTMARISH HELL THAT THE US CAN BRING UPON YOUR SORRY ASSES JUST FOR FUN.
HEHE :)))
August 24th, 2007 at 8:04 am
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September 13th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
I heard somewhere that if Kim Jong Il died, China would interviene and make North Korea a part of China. Would the US and the ROK let that happen?
September 14th, 2007 at 12:41 am
Dan, most likely not because South Korea would bear the brunt of the costs of reunification. Korea has a very strong nationalist pride, and will not let Korea go without some kind of fight. However, they would more than happily accept outside money and cooperation to rebuild and bring a former North Korea in line with the south.
September 14th, 2007 at 10:56 am
Dan,
I’m working on the second post a little at a time and plan to make it available next week sometime and it will (try to) address that issue. The short answer is; probably not, but it depends.