ROK envoy Chun Yung-woo is confident that at least the first steps – North Korea shutting down the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon – will go according to plan.

North Korea is fully prepared to shut down its nuclear facilities and allow inspections, a South Korean official said in New York, where envoys from Pyongyang and Washington are set to begin rare talks on improving ties.

[. . .]

“I don’t think there’s any doubt about the North’s readiness to execute the initial steps. . . The North has agreed to the initial steps and has the intention to fully do its part,” [South Korean envoy Chun Yung-woo] was quoted as saying by South Korean media after he met Kim at a hotel on Saturday.

However:

One of the possible obstacles to implementing the nuclear agreement is Pyongyang’s continued denial of having an uranium-based weapons program. The nuclear dispute erupted in late 2002 following a U.S. accusation that North Korea was running a nuclear weapons program based on highly-enriched uranium (HEU).

The South Korean official said North Korea repeated its previous stance that “it has no HEU program, but it can discuss the issue.”

And so what “fully” really means for the North Korean negotiators comes down to HEU. I’m betting that that will be the sticking point that will cause the current partial deal to disintegrate.

And the “small first step” of U.S.-DPRK normalization is taking place:

US officials cautioned that the talks in New York are only a small first step towards improving ties and that North Korea must end its nuclear weapons program to end a half century of enmity between the two states.

In other areas of the deal, negotiations are starting:

South Korea on Friday added pressure on North Korea to comply with an international disarmament agreement, refusing the impoverished nation’s demand to restore full aid shipments until after its main nuclear reactor is shut down.

With some clarification:

Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung said Monday that Seoul is likely to resume its halted rice shipments to Pyongyang in late May after the two Koreas discuss the issue at a meeting to be held next month.

[. . .]

“The North made quite reasonable proposals for aid, and we stressed North Korea should make efforts in view of negative public opinion about the resumption of aid following its nuclear weapon test last October,” he said.

According to the South’s point man on North Korea, Pyongyang demanded 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer for this year.

On Sunday a North Korean representative arrived in Hanoi on Sunday to discuss normalizing diplomatic relations with Japan, but Abe’s recent comments about Comfort Women are likely to chill those talks.

Predictions are tricky, but I can agree with this:

The new deal itself is probably going to pull enough at least short term aid for the North to back away from taking a provocative step toward recurrent acts of terrorism/brinkmanship…

Up until the diplomatic HEU bomb detonates.