Kim Jong-il turned 65 on 16 February, which served as a reminder that he’s not yet names a successor, at least publicly. Rumors in 2005 and 2006 speculated that Kim’s second son, Kim Jong-chol (김정철), had replaced Kim Jong-nam (김정남) in the running (analysis from several years ago often said that Kim’s third son, Jong-eun (김정운), was not considered to be a viable successor due to his age, however as Jong-eun is only two years younger than Jong-chol, that analysis has aged out of relevancy). In January 2007 reports indicated that Kim had banned talk of his succession.

The latest rumor focues on “collective leadership” A.K. (after Kim):

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has been preparing a military-led collective leadership to rule the communist country after his death, a news report said. . . “Chairman Kim, who had picked his eldest son Jong-Nam to succeed to him, changed his mind a few years ago… and is preparing to allow in a collective leadership system,” one of the sources said. . . “I understand Chairman Kim… is test-running the collective leadership with the military authorities in the centre,” another source said.

Lee Ki Dong, head of Inter-Korean Studies Center at International Affairs Institute, has a theory based on content analysis (emphasis of the word “dawn”) of Rodong Shinmun (로동신문) editorials, which he has been analyzing about seven years. He believes that one of Kim’s younger sons still has a shot at becoming the next supreme being leader of North Korea:

“At this point, it is the perfect timing (for North Korea) to propagandize new leadership that would overcome the current crisis,” Lee argued, “and (in succession of leadership) current leader’s age matters more than that of successor candidate.” (Two of Kim Jong Il’s favorite sons are still in their twenties)

Lee had been analyzing the Rodong Shinmun, North Korean state newspaper’s editorials since 2000, and detected an increase in mentioning of the word “dawn,” such as Kim Jong Il’s statement of “Strong Nation’s age dawns,” particularly after nuclear test.

According to Lee’s analysis, emphasis on the word “dawn” in the recent Rodong editorials should be interpreted constructively. “Dawn does not only mean a new age of the so-called Strong Nation but also a new rising sun, or successor of Kim Jong Il,” Lee analyzed.

Frequency of the word “dawn” in the Rodong editorials had been 9 to 36 times per year from 2000 to 2005, whereas the same word has appeared 324 times in this year so far.

Monthly frequency of “dawn” had been less than 10 until this June and has sharply increased since July when North Korea launched ballistic missiles; 39 times in July, 40 in August, 101 in September and 128 in October.

[…]

Lee pointed out recent propaganda of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il’s teenage activities, which emphasizes irrelevance of age in revolutionary leadership. Therefore, Lee concluded, still young sons of Kim Jong Il would most likely be chosen as the next leader of North Korea.

Although any of Kim sons is experienced enough or exposed to the public yet, it is always possible to manipulate the image of successor in North Korea. However, Lee expected, since manipulation of image would take considerable time, decision of who to succeed Kim Jong Il would be done in near future.

The bottom line is that no one besides Kim Jong-il and perhaps a few of his cronies knows who will be the next North Korean leader. I will say that rule by committee in North Korea would probably be a recipe for infighting and eventual collapse, and I’m therefore all for it.

The DailyNK has an entire series of articles on this issue, and for something on the lighter side try this.