Rumors abound:

Is Israel, supported by the Bush Administration, preparing to launch an atomic war against Iran? On January 7, the London Sunday Times claimed that the Israeli government is planning to attack Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons. While the Israeli government denies the story, recent statements by top Israeli officials and military figures — along with recent White House threats against Iran and Syria and a shuffling of American commanders in the Middle East — suggest that the possibility is real.

That pretty much sets the stage; Israel is planning something, and the U.S. is quietly backing them up; the ole Neocon/Jewish conspiracy at work, business as usual.

But taking a step back from the too-sweet conspiracy Cool-Aid for a moment, consider Israel’s position. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated that Israel “must be wiped off the map,” Iran is openly working on uranium enrichment for what is ostensibly a “peaceful” nuclear program, while the UN has a perfect track record when it comes to nuclear proliferation… of being completely useless. Add to that the also fruitless EU and U.S. efforts to curb Iran’s appetite for a uranium program, and Israel has just cause for concern. More so considering how easy a uranium nuclear device is to construct, and that Iran has viable delivery options.

Israel has learned, the hard way, that the UN cannot protect it, and that it must take full and complete responsibility for its own safety and survival. Yes, the U.S. aids Israel, but it can fight its own fights.

By openly threatening Israel and continuing what is in all likelihood a nuclear weapons program, Ahmadinejad perhaps unwittingly has given Israel a fairly good case for preemptive strikes. Iran’s snubbing of the UN, EU, and U.S. will mean that Isreal will be openly slapped on the wrist, but that nothing more serious will come from the international community.

But that does not means a conspiracy is at work:

According to the Times, the attack will use a combination of conventional laser-guided bombs and one kiloton tactical nuclear “bunker busters.” The targets would be the centrifuges at Natanz, a uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, and the heavy water reactor at Arak.

One source told the Times, “As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished.”

[. . .]

While the last election was a repudiation of the neo-conservative’s policies of aggressive militarism, many of those neo-conservatives are steering the current escalation in Iraq. President’s Bush’s “new way forward” is lifted directly from a policy paper by Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the neoconservative think tank that pushed so hard for the initial invasion of Iraq. Kagan — along with William Kristol, editor of the neoconservative Weekly Standard — designed the plan that will send more than 20,000 troops to Iraq.

[. . .]

If the United States does intend to hit Iran, or to support such an attack by Israel, then it just appointed the right man for the job. The new head of Central Command (CENTCOM) that oversees the Middle East, Admiral William Fallon, is the former head of U.S. Pacific Command and an expert on air war.

[. . .]

Fallon is also close with the neoconservatives and attended the 2001 awards ceremony of the Jewish Institute for National Security (JINSA), a think tank that strongly pushed for the war in Iraq and currently lobbies for attacking Iran.

Ah yes, a new twist; the Vast Neocon-Pentagon-Jewish conspiracy/axis at work. Puhahaha.

If Israel attacks Iran with one or more preemptive strikes on facilities related to Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. will be blamed. If the U.S. attempts to restrain Israel from protecting itself and Iran becomes a nuclear power, the U.S. will be blamed (for “provoking” Iran into going nuclear, etc.). If the U.S. attempts to restrains Israel, and Israel is later attacked with nuclear weapons, the U.S. will once again be blamed.

You can’t make everyone happy all the time, but sometimes you can’t make anyone happy, which lends an amount of freedom to what one does. In this case, I’d neither help nor hinder Israel.