An article in the New York Times indicates China may have punished North Korea by withholding oil, while another in the Washington Times suggests that China has helped North Korea with its nuclear programs. Both may be overblown.

According to figures released by China’s customs administration, no crude oil was shipped to North Korea for the entire month of September. The common assumption is that China was punishing North Korea for the July missile launches and generally belligerent behavior:

The unusual move — the figures show China sold no crude oil at all to its neighbor in September — reduced sales for the year by about 7 percent from the similar period in 2005. China’s oil exports to North Korea, though uneven, had been averaging about 12,300 barrels a day.

North Korea depends on China for up to 90 percent of its oil supplies. . . Any sustained reduction could cripple its isolated and struggling economy.

If China did withhold oil for the entire month of September to apply some pressure on Pyongyang and demonstrate a willingness to use its leverage, the display was an abject failure, and approximately nine days after oil shipments started again, North Korea tested a nuclear weapon and displayed its own leverage. Or it could be something else:

It remains possible the statistics are an anomaly or that supplies were cut because North Korea did not need more oil in September.

[…]

[Last February] . . .China celebrated its extended lunar New Year holiday. North Korea and other customers, including Japan, Malaysia, Thailand and Australia, got no Chinese oil supplies during that month in either year, customs figures show.

I don’t know if North Korea had ‘need’ for the oil that month, or if China also did not ship crude to other customers in September, two important pieces of information when considering this news.

A third option, in-between ‘it was punishment’ or ‘it was nothing,’ was that it was a combination of both. Did North Korea not order oil for the first two weeks of September and was then denied oil in the last half of the month?

I think the situational evidence points to some pressure being applied by China, but the bottom line is that we simply cannot say with for certain without more information.

According to Bill Gertz, the final draft report of the U.S.-China Economic Security Review Commission, due to be released in November, indicates that China has at the very least indirectly to North Korea’s nuclear programs:

China helped North Korea develop nuclear weapons and in the past year increased its support to Pyongyang, rather than pressing the regime to halt nuclear arms and missile activities, according to a congressional report.

[…]

“China has contributed at least indirectly to North Korea’s nuclear program,” the report stated, noting that China was a “primary supplier” to Pakistan’s nuclear-arms program.

[…]

The unclassified version of the report does not include details of the Chinese support but notes that China has “a history” of helping North Korea develop its weapons.

[…]

According to U.S. intelligence officials, North Korean front companies operate freely in China and have used China as a transit point for trade in missile and nuclear components.

[…]

On China’s failure to pressure North Korea, the commission report said that China has refused to exert economic pressure and “instead has actually increased its assistance and trade with North Korea.”

I think this points more to dysfunctional governmental controls in the Chinese government and businessmen looking for profits than a willingness to allow nuclear technology and related materials to enter North Korea and aid its nuclear programs. Why? Because China preferred the status quo: two, non-nuclear Koreas and no U.S. troops on the Yalu. North Korea’s acquisition changes that balance and ultimately gives the U.S. much more leverage for strangling the Kim regime.

Increased trade is no doubt linked to China’s desire for regime stabilization and the need for many of North Korea’s raw materials. Again, I don’t tie any of those goals to China being nonchalant about aiding North Korean nuclear programs.