China Fences Part of Border with North Korea
by Richardson ~ October 16th, 2006. Filed under: China-Korea Relations, Defectors & Refugees, Hunger & Famine.Fencing along the Yalu River started before North Korea’s nuclear test, so it is not a reaction to the test, or of criticisms that China is possibly undermining Saturday’s UNSC resolution by continuing trade projects and suggesting it will not interdict suspect North Korean vessels. From the AP:
China has been building a massive barbed wire and concrete fence along parts of its border with North Korea in the most visible sign of Beijing’s strained ties with its once-cozy communist neighbor.
Scores of soldiers have descended on farmland near the border-marking Yalu River to erect concrete barriers 2.5 to 4 meters (8 to 15 feet) tall and string barbed wire between them, farmers and visitors to the area said.
[…] Reporters who visited the border area in the past week saw about 500 meters (1,640 feet) of newly erected barbed wire fence north of Dandong, mainly along river banks and occasionally broken up by mountain areas or military guard posts.
And from the Daily Yomiuri:
Even after Pyongyang’s announcement that it conducted a nuclear test, areas along the border appeared calm. But closer to the border, on a drive about 20 kilometers north of central Dandong, showed brand new barbed wire fences.
The width of the Yalu River, which forms the border between China and North Korea, near the fences is less than 10 meters, which means crossing the river is relatively easy.
A nearby resident said, “The fences were built a week or so ago, though we don’t know why.”
Locals said the fences seem to be to prevent North Koreans from illegally crossing the border into China.
Beyond the river, North Korean farmers working with tractors in fields could be seen. Before, houses lined the North Korean side of the river.
A Chinese source in Dandong said, “About 150 households were forcibly moved from the border area to a remote location.”
A merchant in Dandong who trades between China and North Korea said even after the U.N. resolution condemning Pyongyang, “It is unlikely that the movement of daily goods and food [for North Korean citizens] will be adversely affected.”
However, a border guard official in Dandong told Yazhou Zhoukan (Asiaweek), a Hong Kong news magazine, that it was possible at least 500,000 North Korea refugees could flow into Liaoning and Jilin provinces, which border North Korea.
The official predicted this could happen if food and daily necessities from China to North Korea are stopped due to closure of the border or other incidents.
However, China will continue to supply the minimum of necessary goods and aid to North Korea to stabilize its civilian life.
But residents in Dandong voiced some anxiety. Another trader in the city said, “North Korean merchants have begun buying up goods aiming to sell them at inflated prices when an emergency [such as closure of the border] occurs.”
A North Korean merchant in his 40s in a hotel in Dandong denied such predictions and seemed unconcerned about the U.N. resolution.
“I’m going to Wuai Market in Shenyang to buy a lot of daily goods this time,” he said. Wuai is the largest wholesale market in northeast China.
According to other sources, about 10,000 residents in Dandong are employed in the trading of goods between China and North Korea. A growing number of government officials also engage in trade with North Korea because its economy has been increasingly reliant on China in recent years.
Optimistic views and anxieties were mixed in the border city about the transportation of goods, which are essential for the daily lives of North Koreans.
October 16th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
This Chinese website has a couple hundred shots of North Korea, presumably in the Dandong River area.
http://junshi.daqi.com/editor/slide/ent_slide/819181/14.html#t
October 16th, 2006 at 2:30 pm
Thanks, those are some interesting pics - wish they had better explanations. Also, that’s linked to in the asides (just below ‘recent coments’), with a H/T to NK Zone.
October 17th, 2006 at 7:35 am
Anyone out there know what the 19km border with Russia looks like? On google, it looks pretty remote and not likey that a North Korean could make it out of the country that way. After all, technically, Russia is a free and democratic country and that would be my choice over China if I was N. Korean…(I know, Putin and all that, but let’s say it’s a democracy for the sake of arguement).
You don’t hear a lot about N.Korean refugees seeking asylum in Russia, so I suppose that part of the border is pretty tight?
October 19th, 2006 at 12:54 am
Something may be going on along the border:
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htintel/articles/20061018.aspx
October 20th, 2006 at 12:42 am
Another nugget that leads me to believe China believes NK is heading for the brink. There have been items like this sprinkled here and there over the past couple of years, and I think the nuke test signifies Pyongyang is also worried about collapse sometime soon.
October 20th, 2006 at 5:58 am
There is no denying that the cracks that began to appear in the late 1990s are becoming more and getting wider. Still, as long as China wants North Korea for a buffer zone, it will prop up the regime (or try to – the cracks could get beyond China’s ability to control), UNSCR 1718 or not. I think the best route for the U.S. is to disabuse China of that notion with carrots and a big stick. But I don’t have much hope for that.
October 21st, 2006 at 1:15 am
Or China could go ahead and sponsor a military coup in North Korea, and retain a much more pliant client-state as a buffer.
October 21st, 2006 at 2:01 pm
I think the fence, moving more Chinese troops to the area, shoot outs in that area between NK soldiers and Chinese, Pyongyang refusing to give back some trains that brought in supplies, and a lot of little things like this peppered over the last 12 months could very well mean China and Pyongyang are worried Pyongyang might not hold it together in the near future (next year or two).
I can picture China trying something like James noted. I wouldn’t put it above 50%, but I wouldn’t be against it either.
A key question: Does Bejing think it can hold North Korea together without Kim Jong Il and those attached too closely too him to splinter off?
It would seem to me if China were smart, it would believe it is too questionable whether they can hold the nation of North Korea together after a coup to warrant making such moves except perhaps as a last resort once the regime starts to crumble (if it starts to crumble).
This is not even taking into consideration how China would have to factor in possible reactions by the US and how much the US could influence others to join them against any stiff opposition to Chinese rule in North Korea if the US decided to do so.
If China believes North Korea is more than likely not going to last more than a year or two, it might be better for them to negociate with South Korea, the US, and Japan on a unification package that would follow certain trends we have already been witnessing - like letting South Korea take the lead in developing a post-unification state in return for a withdrawal of USFK and a large committement of continued developmental aid from the US and Japan and leadership from those two nations in getting others like the EU nations to help out as well.
There would be major obstacles to gaining such an agreement and then implementing it, but it might be a better avenue to consider than a coup. If the above falls apart, it doesn’t place China in a worse position (expect with North Korea is news of the deal leaked much). But, failure with a coup plan (even if the coup works) could hurt China significantly.
October 21st, 2006 at 2:02 pm
“I can picture China trying something like James noted. I wouldn’t put it above 50%, but I wouldn’t be against it either.”
..bet against it either