BREAKING NEWS - North Korea Claims Successful Nuke Test
by Richardson ~ October 8th, 2006. Filed under: Engagement, Nuclear Proliferation, WMD.Update: According to Fox News (broadcast), North Korea notified China that a test was going to occur, and China passed that warning on to the U.S. 20 minutes beforehand. The website notes that, “U.S. intelligence official cannot confirm what would be North Korea’s first-ever nuclear weapons test.”
Original Post: Things are about to get interesting. North Korea claims to have tested a nuke; seismic confirms an explosion:
North Korea announced Monday that it successfully conducted an underground nuclear test. […] “The nuclear test was conducted by 100 percent of our wisdom and technology,” it said.
There was no danger including leaks of radioactivity, it added.
South Korea’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said the country’s state intelligence agency detected a 3.58 magnitude seismic tremor in the North’s remote area of North Hamgyeong Province at around 10 a.m.
More on the location and ROK reaction:
“We detected the explosive sound from Hwadaeri near Kilju in North Hamgyong Province at 10:36 a.m.(KST),” a senior Defense Ministry official said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitive nature of the information.
But South Korea’s military has yet to raise its alert level beyond usual defense situations, he said. The troops are still maintaining a Watchcon 3 surveillance status and Defcon 4 defense readiness status.
And as usual with great timing:
The report of the test came as Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Seoul for meetings with President Roh Moo-hyun to address the nuclear issue as well as address strains in relations between the two countries over territorial and historical disputes.
A few brief thoughts until we can learn more about what happened.
First, that North Korea tested a nuke is not confirmed. The could have merely detonated a large amount of conventional explosives in deep (est. ~2km) mine to simulate a nuclear test; after all, the Taepodong 2 ICBM was an abject failure. It’s a possibility, but I doubt it as satellites will probably be able to differentiate between the two. Second, militarily I don’t see any action coming soon; Pakistan/India, but with more sanctions. Seoul didn’t even raise the military alert level. Third, mid-to-long term, UN sections are on the way that may finally topple the Kim regime; let’s hope so. Fourth, North Korea once again a) made China look the fool for conveying its offer not to test, and b) showed that it makes such offers in bad faith to begin with.
Watch for updates… in the morning EST. H/T danb.
October 9th, 2006 at 12:03 am
This comes rather suddenly upon the heels of the North’s denial that “its nuclear test was imminent.”
Given the unlikelihood that the U.S. has moved “toward imposing [new] sanctions or launching a military attack” in the brief 24 hours since the North warned against such moves, then this nuclear test is even more puzzling.
The test is yet more baffling when one considers that the North had “informed China [that] it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks.”
Whether this was a nuclear device or a whole lot of TNT used for simulating one, its use so soon after its statements yesterday makes the North look extremely erratic. It might also prove embarrassing to China.
So … what was the point? Was this an accidental firing? Or does Kim Jong-il want to look erratic? Or does the army call the shots now, overruling the government’s position? Or was there a remarkably coincidental earthquake?
Bizarre.
Jeffery Hodges
* * *
October 9th, 2006 at 12:38 am
I’ll dub this ‘Kim’s Folly,’ as I think he’ll end up paying dear for it.
However, this isn’t heartening;
October 9th, 2006 at 1:39 am
Kim’s gameplan was that his admission to Prime Minister Koizumi on 17 Sep 2002 was going to be greeted with hosannas in Tokyo, diplomatic relations would be established, and that $10 billion in WWII reparation moneys would be shortly forthcoming. The operative word here being ‘$10 billion’ and ’shortly’ … like in ‘tomorrow’.
Wrong-o … with a capital ‘W’.
Kim (and his addlebrained advisors) completely misjudged the nature and depth of the feelings of the Japanese populace on this matter and were completely taken aback by the vehemence of their negative response.
I can still recall KCNA’s bitching about Tokyo’s not forking over the big bucks immediately after the ‘two nations’ big bosses had already agreed to it and can’t understand what the problem is’ … which, by the way, certainly seems to imply a clear lack of understanding of how democratic governments actually operate.
My views on the Kim Family Regime’s political sophistication at the international level (as reflected in my thinking then, ‘Geez! These guys are really stoopid!’) haven’t changed all that much since then … and, if nothing else, are certainly being confirmed by this latest antic.
October 9th, 2006 at 1:42 am
I think that this will eventually be shown to be an almost incredible FUBAR on the part of Kim Jong-il.
I don’t think that it’s reached the point of being considered ‘common knowledge’, but Kim just isn’t all that smart, really.
I recall Pyongyang’s similar mishandling of another situation - when Kim Jong-il admitted to Prime Minister Koizumi about having North Korean agents kidnap Japanese citizens on Japanese soil (and elsewhere) and smuggle them to North Korea to train North Korean spies on how to better infiltrate and undermine Japan.
Kim’s gameplan was that his admission to Prime Minister Koizumi on 17 Sep 2002 was going to be greeted with hosannas in Tokyo, diplomatic relations would be established, and that $10 billion in WWII reparation moneys would be shortly forthcoming. The operative word here being ‘$10 billion’ and ’shortly’ … like in ‘tomorrow’.
Wrong-o … with a capital ‘W’.
Kim (and his addlebrained advisors) completely misjudged the nature and depth of the feelings of the Japanese populace on this matter and were completely taken aback by the vehemence of their negative response.
I can still recall KCNA’s bitching about Tokyo’s not forking over the big bucks immediately after the ‘two nations’ big bosses had already agreed to it and can’t understand what the problem is’ … which, by the way, certainly seems to imply a clear lack of understanding of how democratic governments actually operate.
My views on the Kim Family Regime’s political sophistication at the international level (as reflected in my thinking then, ‘Geez! These guys are really stoopid!’) haven’t changed all that much since then … and, if nothing else, are certainly being confirmed by this latest antic.
October 9th, 2006 at 8:54 pm
“Third, mid-to-long term, UN sections are on the way that may finally topple the Kim regime; let