Roh The Incompetent
by Richardson ~ July 13th, 2006. Filed under: Engagement, Korean Politics, U.S.-Korea Relations. 
Rather than creating peaceful interaction and fostering better chances for a gradual and non-confrontation reunification, the effect of the “Sunshine Policy” has been to drive a wedge between U.S. and South Korean policy and a general polarization of the region. Chances for reunification, peaceful or otherwise, are no closer than they were a decade ago. In 1998 the novel approach to North Korea was a good idea – it hadn’t been tried before and could be the best path, assuming that North Korea was hostile due to a mutual mistrust and wanted to engage.
In June 2000 the North-South summit between Kim Jong-il and former President Kim Dae-jung, and a few family reunions, made many in South Korea and abroad believe they might finally be on the right path. If the promises of Pyongyang had been sincere, they might have been right. Two years later, without the promised visit to South Korea by Kim Jong-il, some began to wonder. And then the revelation of the covert and illegal uranium nuclear program in October 2002 was quickly followed by reversal after reversal of what were thought to be great advancements.
Kim Dae-jung won the Nobel Peace Prize for his approach to North Korea, but was later found to have paid hundred of millions of dollars to arrange the 2000 summit. North Korea never ceased naval provocations, costing the lives of several South Korea seamen (who remain dishonored by the Roh administration). Talks with Japan over abductees broke down as North Korea was found to have provided fabricated information. The ejection of IAEA inspectors and the reprocessing of plutonium. What was assumed to have been genuine progress through engagement was quickly reversed and revealed to have been false and insincere on the Pyongyang’s part.
Instead of admitting they’d been sold a dead horse, South Korean policy makers continued to ride the rotting and bloated beast known as the “Sunshine Policy,” until all that’s left today is a pile of bones, a bit of dried skin, and a few dirty tufts of hair. The Roh administration, however, is still in the saddle. One can imagine Roh using coconuts to fake the sound of hooves in a bizarre caricature of Monte Python’s The Holy Grail, telling the South Korean people he’s making great progress with their brothers and sisters in the north. And when things continue to deteriorate, no worries, he’ll just continue to beat the American scapegoat.
With all that in mind, I think GI Korea has hit the nail squarely on the head as to how history will view Roh Moo-hyun:
It is becoming more and more apparent that South Korea’s incompetent government is going to create the thing that they fear more than the North Korean threat and that is a fully militarized Japan. South Korea has only itself to blame for the beginning an arms race in northeast Asia and the normalization of Japanese military might with their coddling of North Korea and anti-American policies. It is quickly looking like the legacy of President Roh will be the beginning of the end of the US-ROK alliance which has brought the greatest prosperity and security the country has ever had, a belligerent and nuclear armed North Korea, and a rearmed and militarized Japan ready to conduct pre-emptive strikes on the peninsula. Quite a legacy indeed.
Update: This opinion piece by Michael Breen provides some insight on why Roh makes some decisions, and what South Korea should actually be doing. H/t Robert.
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July 13th, 2006 at 11:17 am
I read Michael Breen’s opinion piece, and it offered good advice. I also read his book, The Koreans, and he has a really good understanding of Korea.
In the article, I liked the way Breen explained the importance of the Sunshine Policy:
Breen’s advice to the SK government is very pertinent:
The Sunshine Policy is better than Bush’s policy, which is to insult, ignore, threaten NK, and ruin the 6-Party Talks with financial sanctions.
This week, NK announced that it will return to the 6-Party Talks if America drops the financial sanctions. The Bush Admin. has to realize that
denuclearization of NK is more important than stopping counterfeiting. The financial sanctions should be dropped for the sake of negotiations and international peace.
July 13th, 2006 at 11:46 am
Mi-hwa, I think you’re misinterpreting Breen’s advice and comments on the “Sunshine Policy.” Engagement with the hope of softening the landing is good to attempt; that does not say that it has worked as implemented. And the current reality of the state of affairs shows that it will not work as long as North Korea doesn’t want it to. Bush’s policy towards North Korea recognizes what an enormous mistake the ROK policy has been. If you think ignoring bad advice is rude, that’s your right.
You keep coming back to the financial sanctions. I’d really like to know why you think the North Korean government should not be punished for counterfeiting U.S. currency. Do you think nuclear brinkmanship is a license to print greenbacks?
Yes, this week North Korea made an offer they knew would be refused. If the U.S. offered to drop the sanctions if North Korea would give up its nukes, what do you think North Korea would say?
July 13th, 2006 at 12:07 pm
“If the U.S. offered to drop the sanctions if North Korea would give up its nukes, what do you think North Korea would say?”
We’ll have to wait and see what happens next.
July 13th, 2006 at 12:25 pm
You didn’t explain why you think North Korea is free to counterfeit U.S. money.
I don’t think we need to wait and see, we all know the answer; North Korea doesn’t want a deal and is being disingenuous.
July 13th, 2006 at 1:33 pm
“You didn’t explain why you think North Korea is free to counterfeit U.S. money.”
Denuclearization of NK has higher priority than stopping counterfeiting. America should deal with NK’s nuclear weapons first by helping to restart the 6-Party Talks, even if it means lifting the financial sanctions.
“North Korea doesn’t want a deal and is being disingenuous.”
It’s very clear from the agreement reached last September, that NK does want a deal. Specifically, NK wants a civilian nuclear reactor, security guarantees, peace treaty, diplomatic relations, and the financial sanctions lifted.
“Yes, this week North Korea made an offer they knew would be refused.”
The Bush Admin. should take the offer very seriously. America can make a counter-offer of lifting the financial sanctions as long as NK participates in the 6-Party Talks and keeps the missile testing moratorium.
“I think you’re misinterpreting Breen’s advice and comments on the “Sunshine Policy.” ”
I’m not misinterpreting. I’m just quoting what he wrote, word for word. If people think I’m taking the quotes out of context, then they can just read the whole article for themselves.
July 13th, 2006 at 2:06 pm
The signal that sends: ‘it’s ok to counterfeit if you do something even worse to distract us from it.’ That is wrong on so many levels, logic being the least.
You forgot to mention that they also want nuclear weapons. The only way they’d take that deal is without “complete, verifiable, and irreversible” included in the terms, which precludes any deal. Also, if they deal, it means engagement; the cult can’t handle that. No, they do not want a deal.
I did read the article and you were misinterpreting. He was not explaining the “importance of the Sunshine Policy” itself, but how South Koreans perceive it to be important. That’s not the same thing. In fact, he goes on to say:
July 13th, 2006 at 2:17 pm
Ah silly naive Mihwa shows up to misinform and muck reality into fantasie of 12% approval NO and his 10% approval PIG Uri, again…
“If the U.S. offered to drop the sanctions if North Korea would give up its nukes, what do you think North Korea would say?”
Why would USA le CONNED to another LIE? Did DPRK ever do what they said they would do on nuclear weapon and missiles, EVER? LOL 2 MAX!
It’s a FACT that US saction against DPRK’s money laundering source at Banco Delta is having desired effect with stories about DPRK business men carrying bags of RMB (PRC yuan) to conduct even “legitimate” business all over the world. Why? Modern financial transactions are based on credit via reputable bank which DPRK lacks. No sane business person would accept USD100 notes from WELL KNOWN super note counterfiters.
In fact, it HURTS SO MUCH that DPRK even raised something quote out of ordinary last week which is WE MIGHT CONSIDER RETURNING TO 6-NATION TALK IF USA RELEASES $24 MILLION sitting at Banco Delta. Sure meager $24 mil but FACT IS USA got DPRK’s by it’s financial throat.
July 13th, 2006 at 2:58 pm
Speaking of approval ratings, in the latest Gallup poll, Bush only has 40% approval. Most Americans do not approve of how he’s handling Iraq, and some do not approve of how he’s handling North Korea.
Because of Bush’s low approval, the Democrats can take over Congress and the White House. I hope the Democrats will have a better policy towards NK.
July 13th, 2006 at 5:07 pm
The approval rating you quote for Bush on the Issue of Iraq does not necessary translate into the Democrats winning anything as Americans choose candidates based upon a variety of issues.
But if you like polls, try the following, and note we didn’t blow anything up even though the majority thought we should (copied from an earlier post):
According to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News, 56 percent believe the current situation is a viable threat and 33 percent think North Korea is bluffing. A majority of Americans also favor blowing up the Taepodong missile where it sits (emphasis added):
July 13th, 2006 at 6:05 pm
Richardson, Joshua and James,
If at all possible please do not post NO’s face on the blog. Satirical pictures are OK.
NO’s ugly face (even with plastic surgery paid by tax payers) appearing just ruins my day.
July 13th, 2006 at 6:18 pm
I picked that picture for two reasons; 1) he lookes like a deer in headlights, and 2) he looks that way at the UN.
July 13th, 2006 at 11:45 pm
Sadly, UN allowed high school grad to speak and of course he made ass of himself - uneducated NO.
I find it amusing for NO and his cronies to push for Ban Ki Mun the spineless foreign minister as shoe in successor to Kofi Anan. Who said next UN leader has to come out of Asia and Ban is the one?