North Korea: A Dangerous, But Incompetent Villain
by Richardson ~ July 5th, 2006. Filed under: China, DPRK Military, Geopolitics, Japan, North Korea, Nuclear Proliferation, Russia, Six-Party Talks, U.S.-Korea Relations, WMD. My latest op-ed on North Korea and its missile launch appears on RealClearPolitics:
Ever notice the modus operandi of movie villains? When the villain captures the noble protagonist, instead of simply executing the latter and moving on to perform other evil deeds, he dithers and trots out complex machinery to “torture” the hero for a while — a gift, really — leaving just enough time and wiggle room for the protagonist to escape and bring the villain to justice.That, in a nutshell, is North Korea today — a dangerous, but incompetent villain.
But will the Bush administration make use of this gift?
Ultimately, China’s economic relationship with the U.S. is far more important for China’s economic growth and political stability than continuing to protect North Korea’s arsenal. The choice ought to be, thus, very clear for China’s leaders — provided, of course, that Washington presents Beijing with the choice.Will the Bush administration, at last, exercise this potent lever to contain North Korea’s nuclear and proliferation threat?
You can read the whole thing here.
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July 5th, 2006 at 4:20 pm
I just wanted to say that your article over at Real Clear Politics was excellent. I agree with you about N. Korea being a caricature of a villain: all bluster, little substance.
July 5th, 2006 at 4:53 pm
I don’t think that any policy towards North Korea, aside from appeasement, will get any results with them as long as North Korea wants nuclear weapons. The goal is regime survival but with a twist; too much engagement threatens it more than isolation due to the cult aspect of the legitimacy of the regime. That’s why I don’t think a policy towards North Korea will work, at least while Kim is breathing.
But I agree that China is the key, or rather our North Korea policy toward China is the key.
Of course part of the reason China has balked at allowing the Kim regime to fail is that they rather strongly prefer not to have USFK in the northern half of the peninsula – China is fond of those buffer nations and territories (Tibet, Eastern Turkistan, Mongolia, NK).
One way around that issue might be to strike a bargain that USFK will not deploy bases north of the 38th parallel. An agreement that would allow for military ‘observers’ would of course be preferred.
I especially would like to see what’s suggested here:
July 5th, 2006 at 4:54 pm
Thank you for the kind remarks about my piece.
Let me clarify. I do not think that the threat from North Korea should be taken lightly, merely because it is incompetent. The threat is genuine and, if you like, substantive.
That is why I called it “DANGEROUS, but incompetent.”
My main point is that the North Korean regime unwittingly handed out a gift… just like movie villains.
But will the U.S. take advantage of that or continue to insist on sitting strapped to the “death machine”?
I remain pessimistic… that the hubbub will garner little more than rhetorical responses from the West, including the U.S.
July 5th, 2006 at 4:59 pm
Burma, anyone?
And outstanding suggestion!
Then there is the issue of China actually sharing the border with ROK. How would that affect the hietherto friendly relationship (except the Goguryeo episode)?
My prediction is: negatively.
First, because sharing a border, esp. somewhat unsettled one, always has a potential to go wrong.
Second, because allegedly PRC is counting on ROK investment to revitablize the NE provinces, the funds which would instead go to rehabilitate northern Korea should the South absorb the North.
July 5th, 2006 at 5:02 pm
Not directly related, but… Aston Carter was asked about his recommendation for a pre-emptive strike of the NK missile site today on NPR. He thinks we’ve lost a chance to “draw a line” with North Korea, and that they would not have responded by escalating as they know that war equals regime failure for them.
Sometimes I wonder if he and Perry are merely agent provocateurs trying to egg the administration into disaster.
I think that the risk would have been to great to take, at this point. North Korea could miscalculate its own response fairly easily.
July 5th, 2006 at 5:07 pm
All of Paekdusan could become Chinese property! North Korea study groups all over the world would be outraged.
Yes, I agree, once Korea is reunified, relations with China will go south. Unless Korea becomes China’s bitch, which I know many our worried about.
July 5th, 2006 at 5:22 pm
Yes!
Actually, I think that they are staking out (suddenly) hawkish positions to make the Bush administration seem less hawkish, “moderate” or cowardly.
The danger of any kind of “pre-emptive” strike or any other form of actually intruding into North Korean territory, isn’t so much war, but diplomatic.
By doing that, we’d be one-upping North Korea, in a bad way, i.e. hand North Korea back a gift.
North Korea will then claim itself a victim of American aggression, and whatever leverage we acquired from North Korea’s aggressive mistake will be forfeited.
July 6th, 2006 at 7:39 am
North Korea: A Dangerous, But Incompetent Villain
North Korea: A Dangerous, But Incompetent Villain
North Korea: A Dangerous, But Incompetent Villain
[…] The U.S. response ought to follow logically then to make it “a China problem.” As I wrote before: Thus it is now the time to press Beijing hard, for once. North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear threat would not be where it is today were it not for Beijing, and the U.S. should finally make China take responsibility — by agreeing to the quarantine. And the United States should make the continued Sino-American economic relationship contingent on China acting like a mature great power by exercising this responsibility. […]
July 6th, 2006 at 11:49 pm
North Korea: A Dangerous, But Incompetent Villain
North Korea: A Dangerous, But Incompetent Villain
North Korea: A Dangerous, But Incompetent Villain
[…] In the popular media, there seems to be a near universal consensus that the North Korean missile launch is an attempt at ballistic missile extortion. The main difference in opinion seems to be in response — hawks want a tough response (I count myself in this category); doves want to give in to the said extortion. […]