No DPRK Missile Launch, Even with Clear Weather
by Richardson ~ June 29th, 2006. Filed under: DPRK Military, North Korea, Six-Party Talks, WMD.The Musudan-ri Missile Test Site, where Nodong and Taepodong missiles have been launched from and where the current Taepodong 2 in question is sitting, is in Hamgyong Bukdo, the northern most province on the East Sea. Weather for the closest major city, Ch’ongjin, is rain all week, and most of next week:
But even after the weather clears, I don’t think North Korea will launch the missile, at least anytime soon.
Eventually, perhaps, but not soon.
This issue has become very similar to the nuclear one. Not the same since part of the threat of nuclear weapons is ‘do they exist,’ while with the missile it’s the capability; do they have the ability to deliver a nuclear warhead? What distance, and what accuracy?
The similarity is that the potential threat is more valuable to North Korea in that it produces a fear of the unknown in its enemies. Another failed launch attempt would cause North Korea to lose face, while even a successful outcome would allow intelligence agencies to collect more data, which could remove much of the mystery.
Without ever firing the missile, Kim Jong-il can continue to use the threat of its potential over and over. DPRK related news is dominated by it, security focused think tanks are researching it, and most importantly U.S. and regional policy makers are debating how to approach it - rather than on the Six-Party Talks.
As missiles go, it’s a very productive one, for Kim Jong-il.
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June 29th, 2006 at 8:23 pm
No DPRK Missile Launch, Even with Clear Weather
[…] Defense Tech is still keeping a hoax watch for an NK missile launch Joshua believes will not happen. And, if all else fails, Tokyo is sending the Kinshima straight from its participation in Valiant Shield, to save ius all from intelligence failure and human fallibility. The problem is, that the Kinshima can only detect the launch, not defend against it. Last week, the Kirishima took part in a U.S. Navy missile interception test conducted near Hawaii, in which the vessel practiced tracking the target. However, newspaper reports say that Japan’s Aegis ships are not yet equipped with the Standard Missile-3 interceptor used to shoot down a medium-range missile. The Defense Agency’s spokeswoman declined to comment on the ship’s capabilities. […]
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: pelagius
EMAIL: imorgan73@yahoo.com
If DC can’t keep its subways running after that much rain, and KJI pulls off a missile launch in the same, then I propose we turn over the Metro system to the Korean Workers’ Party. We could use a few more chandeliers down there.
July 3rd, 2006 at 4:20 pm
No DPRK Missile Launch, Even with Clear Weather
[…] As I wrote a few days ago, I don’t believe that North Korea will be launching the Taepodong soon, for some of the same reasons pointed out here – too much to lose. But the fact that a majority of the American public, already concerned about being overextended in Iraq and worried about Iran, believes that we should conduct a pre-emptive attack on North Korea to counter the threat is somewhat surprising, but also signals that North Korea is reaching the brink of brinksmanship. […]
July 3rd, 2006 at 4:23 pm
No DPRK Missile Launch, Even with Clear Weather
[…] As I wrote a few days ago, I don’t believe that North Korea will be launching the Taepodong soon, for some of the same reasons pointed out here – too much to lose. But the fact that a majority of the American public, already concerned about being overextended in Iraq and worried about Iran, believes that we should conduct a pre-emptive attack on North Korea to counter the threat is somewhat surprising, but also signals that North Korea is reaching the brink of brinksmanship. […]
July 4th, 2006 at 9:33 pm
No DPRK Missile Launch, Even with Clear Weather
[…] At this point I have to say that I was wrong – I inaccurately predicted that North Korea would not launch for several good reasons (apparently Kim Jong-il does not read this blog). But this leads to tomorrows analysis of this event, which will focus on why the ICBM launch is a tactical failure and huge mistake for North Korea, the main points being that a) a launch was not needed to manufacture an excuse to continue avoiding talks, b) the failed launch was a national embarrassment, c) North Korea gleaned (probably) little useful data for missile R&D, and d) they gave U.S. intelligence data on all missiles launched. […]
July 4th, 2006 at 9:40 pm
No DPRK Missile Launch, Even with Clear Weather
[…] At this point I have to say that I was wrong – I inaccurately predicted that North Korea would not launch for several good reasons (apparently Kim Jong-il does not read this blog). But this leads to tomorrows analysis of this event, which will focus on why the ICBM launch is a tactical failure and huge mistake for North Korea, the main points being that a) a launch was not needed to manufacture an excuse to continue avoiding talks, b) the failed launch was a national embarrassment, c) North Korea gleaned (probably) little useful data for missile R&D, and d) they gave U.S. intelligence data on all missiles launched. […]