Why is Taiwan being left out? Some choice bits from the Weekly Standard:

Yet, although Washington and Tokyo are expected to use the occasion to tout progress on nearly all major strategic questions, the two allies will almost certainly remain silent on one pressing issue: Taiwan’s increasingly uncertain role in their East Asian security architecture. [snip]

But progress on Taiwan’s status has been conspicuously absent. Beijing’s claims to the island make it the primary Sino-American flashpoint; and thus a topic that U.S. diplomats prefer to avoid. [snip]

“There is a tendency by senior U.S. officials to view Taiwan largely through the prism of U.S.-China relations, rather than as a bilateral relationship that stands on its own merits,” says former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Randall Schriver. “When defined this way, there are often sacrifices in U.S.-Taiwan relations.” [snip]

In 2001, the Bush administration proffered Taiwan an $18 billion arms package. But the deal fell victim to partisan politics and the KMT blocked voting on the resulting bill 55 times, allowing it to languish in Taiwan’s legislature. By feting Ma, the KMT chairman, the White House was embracing a leader whose party has been actively impeding the implementation of Pentagon policy in Asia.

Then there is Japan’s interest. Taiwan’s current DPP government has pursued closer security ties with Tokyo, with President Chen going so far as to advocate a three-way “quasi-military alliance” between Japan, Taiwan, and the United States. By contrast, Ma’s wariness of Japan is well known, and many in Taipei and Tokyo fear that should his party regain power, it might endanger bilateral ties.

Japan, for its part, is vying for political leadership in East Asia and
examining its security relationship with Taiwan, even forming a legislative committee to do so in 2004. Given the strained state of Beijing’s relations with Tokyo, a Ma administration that moves Taipei closer to Beijing risks repelling Tokyo. Such a move could also undermine the U.S.-Japan security alliance as the foundation for Taiwan’s protection.

Ma Ying-Jeou, the Roh Moo-Hyun of Taiwan?

I repeat myself, but I will state again, clearly and unequivocally. This is a most dangerous time for Taiwan’s independence. The old consensus on Taiwan in Washington, especially among Republicans is fracturing. The business-wing of the Republican Party has become pro-China engagement and is willing to sacrifice Taiwanese independence to maintain the Sino-American economic relationship.

The conservative base of the GOP remains strongly anti-PRC and pro-Taiwan in its instincts, but the political attention of the base is fixated on issues considerered more pressing (e.g. illegal immigration, the Iraq War, the larger — so-called — War on Terror, Iran, etc.). It is hard enough to get its attention on North Korea. Taiwan, as an issue, is increasingly disappearing from their perspective. This trend will only compound if the likes of Ma came to power and took Taiwan further into the PRC’s fold (”Why should we work to keep Taiwan free when they seem to be so cozy with China?” They will say).

I participate in an ongoing meeting of security-minded conservative individuals and groups in Washington, D.C. I can count the number of times North Korea was mentioned in the meetings over the past year with one hand. With Taiwan, the number is closer to zero. Since American conservatives remain the staunchest friends Taiwan has in the world, this should be a disturbing trend… if you are a freedom-loving Taiwanese.