Greasy PRC-DPRK Oil Deal Could Lead to Conflict
by Richardson ~ June 6th, 2006. Filed under: Asia, China-Korea Relations, Economics, Engagement, Geopolitics, Korean Culture. 
Last December I wrote this about a Reuters piece that spoke of the possibility of relatively vast oil reserves in North Korean territory and a China-North Korean deal, although the exact area(s) were not revealed. Tuesday a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman stated that the “joint development of oil resources” would be in Yellow Sea area that borders both nations. Few additional details were offered.
From a security standpoint, a large amount of North Korean petroleum reserves has the potential to dramatically change the game players are engaged in. The confirmation of the joint PRC-DPRK deal sets the stage.
Estimates of how much recoverable oil and gas North Korea might have vary widely, from the wildly optimistic 8-10 billion tons, to 3 billion tons, to more moderate, but perhaps still too optimistic 155 million tons.
(see map below)
If North Korea does have oil, I think it would probably be the end of the Kim regime, as it would finally give the South more incentive to move beyond the Sunshine Policy (besides the fact that it does not work as intended). It might be enough to make South Korea realize that it would be cheaper in the long run to just absorb the North and manage the needed infrastructure upgrades themselves – or better yet with income from the oil and gas fields – than to continue the current inefficient path of propping up Kim Jong-il.
Why else might the South change it’s tune? Fears of China claiming North Korea as Chinese territory were the regime to collapse. It’s not unthinkable that an energy starved China would cultivate the oil and gas “joint” development only to discover that it would rather manage the entire affair alone. And China could easily bring about DPRK regime failure. Even if a conspiracy theory at this point, after the Goguryo fiasco, South Koreans might be voracious consumers of such ideas.
It’s all hypothetical for now, but something to think about. For more on this, please see the original post.
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June 6th, 2006 at 11:50 am
Greasy PRC-DPRK Oil Deal Could Lead to Conflict
[…] Over at the Korea Liberator comes news of China and North Korea agreeing to develope oil/gas resources in the Yellow Sea. It reminded me of this old NRO column on China’s “zombie” nations in which China props up failing states in exchange for natural resources and political capital. Just yesterday, I brought up the possibility of China uniting with North Korea in the event of regime collapse. Now it appears China has found an excuse to “intervene” whenever that does happen. The question will that regime in the south take notice? Filed under: North Korea @ 12:50 pm […]
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: James J. Na
EMAIL: jamesjna@hotmail.com
North Korea, the next Burma?
COMMENT:
AUTHOR: Duke
EMAIL: cabaretvoltaireusa@hotmail.com
De ja vu Spratly island dispute anyone? For those of you new to this on-going saga and PRC bullies/thugs, do goggle search under “spratly island dispute”. There are many players who claim these “islets”. Then again commie chinamen also claim Japanese island too.
PRC is on land grab binge! They took over half of symbolic Mt Paektu and reinvent Goguryo histories to claim that Goguryo was part of “old” China. All the while WTF liberal assholes are doing under NO? Nothing! Hell these 386 fools are kowtowing in droves for their new “ally” China - country who invaded god jnows how many times in last few thousand years.
Back to slick oil. PRC who has ever growing thirst for oil ever gets whip of oil next door? With sizable reserve? Hell topple Kim 1 way or another and maybe even invade. But do a side deal with US maybe that for non US intervention, make sure the nukes are destroyed, Kim and his cronies out in Guantanamo and allow US oil companies to drill? Unlikely? Nah, oil s black god my friend.
Yep so much for NO’s coziness with DPRK and PRC…
July 2nd, 2006 at 11:55 am
Greasy PRC-DPRK Oil Deal Could Lead to Conflict
[…] Hat tip to the Korea Liberator: […]
January 29th, 2007 at 10:17 am
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if i have any question on DPRK ,could i come to ask you?
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January 29th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
Ask away… you can also use the contact form;
http://www.dprkstudies.org/contact/