Back in the old days when Taiwan was less democratic, some Taiwanese elites used to say, if only half in jest, that the goal of the Taiwanese government was for Taiwan to become America’s 51st state.

That is what came to my mind when I read the alleged legal justification for why Taiwan is actually U.S. territory! (h/t China e-Lobby)

Whatever the legal merits, I have a suspicion that this will not be taken seriously by serious people in the respective governments (and without a doubt, the PRC government would launch characteristically hysterical diatribes against this kind of writing, giving it more legitimacy than not).

More relevantly, there was a time when the issue of Taiwanese autonomy was something of a sacred cow in the U.S. government, particularly in the legislative branch. Having “lost China,” it was considered unthinkable that the U.S. would ever let a communist China invade and take over Taiwan (which became the impetus for the TRA or the Taiwan Relations Act).

That time, I fear, has passed. Mainland China’s extraordinary economic rise has fueled enormous economic integration between China and the U.S. economy, including the American corporate sector, which frankly sees bigger profits in its relationship with China than with Taiwan.

Thus, Taiwan’s autonomy is increasingly becoming less of a sacred cow in the U.S. It is, rather, becoming “inconvenient” to those who value the economic relationship with China.

Within the American Right, which had been largely staunchly pro-Taiwanese self-determination, I am beginning to see a split: while a coalition of the security-conscious, the pro-democracy and the religious types is still staunchly pro-Taiwan, the economic conservatives (or “libertarian-leaning” types) are beginning to tilt strongly for China, despite its authoritarian nature, largely on economic grounds.

There is a long-term repercussion here for the Taiwanese-U.S. relationship and indeed Taiwan’s future as an independent state, and I fear that the repercussion will not be a positive one.