North Korean SRMB launches saber rattling or not?
by Richardson ~ March 10th, 2006. Filed under: Axis of Evil, DPRK Military, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, WMD.Some analysts reason that the launch of two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) earlier this week was likely normal testing and not an act of provocation:
. . . if Pyongyang had wanted to send a strong signal it could have wheeled out far bigger missiles. “If the North Koreans really wanted to send a signal, why not do a ballistic missile test?” Daniel Pinkston, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California said . . .
[. . .]
“We attach significance to it (the test) because it has the words ‘North Korea’ and ‘missile’,” Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank based in Hawaii, said . . . “The North Koreans would be happy for us to attach a political message but I am not sure that was their intention.”
However there are several events that might have prompted North Korea to time the tests in order to remind the world that it has missiles:
• The Foal Eagle U.S.-ROK joint exercise, scheduled for 25-31 March
• The recent U.S. report criticizing human rights in North Korea
• The meeting over sanctions between U.S. and DPRK officials in New York
• A joint U.S.-Japan missile was test launched in Hawaii
• Japan raided a North Korean vessel this week
• Japan indicated it might “get tough” with North Korea (sanctions)
Pinkston and Cossa make excellent points. However there are three reasons why North Korea might have opted for the SRBM over IRMB or MRBM; (1) being a solid fuel design, it is relatively much simpler to prepare and can be launched with much shorter notice than liquid fueled missiles; (2) the smaller missiles are cheaper for the cash starved regime, and; (3) in order to demonstrate the improvements in their missile design.
With North Korea there is just no way to know for sure without some sort of official statement to the effect, and even then it is suspect.
—–
March 11th, 2006 at 11:28 pm
I just stumbled upon your blog and I commend you for providing so much information. I have learned a lot, thanks and have added it to my links
March 13th, 2006 at 9:27 am
As Sigmund Freud said, “sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.” Although many/most North Korean actions are meant as signals, sometimes there are military events that are just that — military events. For example, NK infiltrations, especially failed ones like the Sept 1996 submarine incident, would not be meant as a political signal despite some analysts’ conjectures that they are meant to derail whatever political discourse is underway. The range of the missile (100km) makes me think it is likely a Styx anti-ship missile which NK periodically tests (such as last May) and could be a part of the military’s annual Winter Training Cycle which runs Jan-April each year.
March 13th, 2006 at 3:54 pm
I tend to agree that it was most likely just routine testing, but wanted to point out that with North Korea one never knows. It will be interesting to see what sort of records will be available, when the regime finally does collapse, on topics like this. Fodder for a lot of books.