An article in today’s Chosun Ilbo, Academic Urges Korea-China-Japan Unity, speaks about the direction the relationships between China, Japan, and Korea ought to take. The title is apt, since it only is academic; but from a realist standpoint, it does help illustrate why U.S. forces will be in Korea – unified or not – for the foreseeable future.

Although a majority of the South Korean population holds generally anti-American feelings for the U.S. and U.S. policy (see the US in Korea website for detailed information on videos on this), some Korean and U.S. policy makers realize that an East Asian arms race scenario just as much a threat today as during the Cold War.

It goes like this; The U.S. pulls out of Korea, for whatever reason. South Korea predictably feels the need to beef up its security due to the absence of U.S. troops, although more from the (real or perceived) threat from Japan rather than North Korea. South Korea is also worried about Chinese designs on North Korean territory. Japan must respond to the Korean buildup, and so enhances its forces with some projection capability, which it currently lacks. This in turn causes concern in China, where Japan is viewed as a threat, although Korea is not. At some point, either Korea or Japan may consider the nuclear option, since it is too costly for them to spend scarce resources on a massive conventional build-up of equipment and forces. The other would soon follow, and East Asia would be a nuclear powder keg ready to explode over something as childish as the Tokdo/Takeshima dispute.

While the details of the race and escalation of tensions can vary in a number of ways, the overall outcome would complicate security and economic matters in East Asia even without the conflict that would probably become a world war. As long as policy makers don’t forget this, the U.S. will be in Korea and Japan